内容概要：当前，中国正逐步减少在养殖中使用抗生素，养殖企业积极寻找安全高效的替代方案。饲料 酸化剂通过降低消化道pH值、抑制有害微生物、促进营养吸收，成为重要的替代选择。同时，饲料行 业整体向"提质增效"转型，对饲料配方的精细化、专业化要求提高。酸化剂能有效提升饲料蛋白转化效 率，降低饲料成本，符合饲料行业降本增效的核心诉求。此外，国家加强了对饲料投入品的监管，并鼓 励推广新型安全高效添加剂，为酸化剂等合规、安全的产品提供了良好的发展环境。在此背景下，饲料 酸化剂行业市场规模持续上涨。2025年中国饲料酸化剂行业市场规模达到46.12亿元，同比上涨 12.65%。 相关上市企业：美农生物（301156）、大北农（002385）、牧原股份（002714）、温氏股份 （300498）、新希望（000876）、天邦食品（002124）、唐人神（002567）、新五丰（600975）、中牧 股份（600195）等。 相关企业：潍坊加易加生物科技有限公司、生物源生物技术(深圳)股份有限公司、上海正正生物技术有 限公司、河南星汉生物科技有限公司、重庆民泰新农业科技发展集团有限公司、成都大帝汉克生物科技 有限公司、广州市佰 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pet economy sector, highlighting its rapid growth during the Spring Festival [4][7]. Core Insights - The pet consumption during the Spring Festival has seen significant growth, with a 20%+ year-on-year increase in searches for "New Year pet gift boxes" on Tmall. The sales of pet clothing surged by 330%, and pet New Year's dinners increased by 290% [7]. - The report emphasizes the comprehensive nature of pet services, with a 46% month-on-month increase in pet boarding demand. The expansion of pet transport services on high-speed trains and airlines is also noted [7]. - Upcoming pet exhibitions in March are expected to further stimulate market interest, with major brands likely to launch new products [7]. Summary by Sections Important Industry Data Overview - The agricultural sector index stands at 2,858.1, with a year-on-year increase of 14.28%. The wholesale price index for agricultural products is at 129.6, reflecting a 4.95% year-on-year increase [10]. - The average price of live pigs is 12.3 yuan/kg, down 15.81% year-on-year, while the average price of piglets is 471.0 yuan/head, down 25.24% year-on-year [10]. Pig Farming Sector - The report anticipates a seasonal decline in pig prices post-Spring Festival, with expectations of low prices leading to potential losses in farming [5][12]. - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional recommendations in the agricultural product supply chain [5]. Poultry Sector - The report discusses the white feather broiler market, noting a decrease in chick prices and stable prices for broiler meat [19][20]. - The average price of broiler chicks is reported at 2.4 yuan/chick, with a 4.35% increase month-on-month [10]. Feed Sector - The report indicates stable feed prices, with corn prices at 2,372.2 yuan/ton and soybean meal prices at 3,167.7 yuan/ton [10][30]. - The analysis highlights the fluctuations in import prices for soybeans and corn, impacting the feed sector [32]. Key Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies, with Muyuan Foods projected at 2.54 yuan for 2025 and 4.81 yuan for 2026, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [36]. - Other companies such as Wens Foodstuffs and Petty Holdings also receive "Overweight" ratings, indicating strong growth potential [36].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3][45] Core Viewpoints - In January, the total slaughter volume of 18 sample pig companies increased by 12.54% year-on-year but decreased by 11.15% month-on-month, totaling 18.02 million heads [6][9] - The average selling price of commercial pigs for 15 sample pig companies in January was 12.58 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 19.30% but an increase of 8.83% month-on-month [13][14] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs in January was 121.41 kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.82% and a month-on-month increase of 1.42% [16][17] - The industry is experiencing a return to losses in breeding profits before the festival, with the average weight of pigs still at historically high levels [19][20] - The current valuation level of the pig farming sector is relatively low, with sufficient safety margins, and the cost advantages of leading companies like Muyuan are expected to expand [34][35] Summary by Sections Slaughter Volume - In January, the total slaughter volume of 18 sample pig companies was 18.02 million heads, with a year-on-year increase of 12.54% and a month-on-month decrease of 11.15% [6][9][11] Selling Price - The average selling price of commercial pigs in January was 12.58 yuan/kg, down 19.30% year-on-year but up 8.83% month-on-month [13][14][16] Average Weight - The average weight of slaughtered pigs was 121.41 kg in January, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.82% and a month-on-month increase of 1.42% [16][17][19] Industry Overview - The industry is facing a return to losses in breeding profits, with the average weight of pigs remaining high historically [19][20][34] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a forward-looking layout at the bottom, emphasizing efficiency over growth and quality over scale, with a focus on companies like Muyuan, Wens, Dekang, and Shennong [33][34][35]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月22日 2026年02月23日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（195） 优于大市 奶牛存栏节后有望维持去化，石化链涨价或带动橡胶价格 原奶：奶牛去化有望延续，原奶价格 2026 年或迎拐点。2026 年 2 月 5 日， 国内主产区原奶均价为 3.04 元/kg，周度环比持平，同比-2.56%。 周度农产品跟踪：年内肉奶周期有望共振反转，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。2026 年 2 月 14 日生猪价格 11.61 元/公斤，周环比-2.60%；7kg 仔猪价格约 357.14 元/头，周环比-0.13%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。2026 年 2 月 14 日，鸡苗价格 2.33 元/羽，周环比+18.27%；毛鸡价格 7.32 元/公斤，周环比+0.27%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。2026 年 2 月 10 日浙江快大 三黄鸡/青脚麻鸡/雪山草鸡斤价分别为 4.7/4.4/5.6 元，周环比分别 +2.17%/-6.38%/+0.00%。 豆粕：估值处于历史低位，关注潜在天气或贸易端催化。2026 年 2 月 ...

正月初五，俗称"破五"，是迎财神的日子。 很多经商的人，都习惯在这天开门营业，图个好彩头。 这一天，河南的民营企业家代表，被请去郑州。 省委书记、省长一起出席，与他们餐叙交流，听意见建议。 这次餐叙交流，有何特别？背后又藏着怎样的深意？ 01 为什么是正月初五？ 在正月初五，河南省领导与民营企业家代表餐叙交流，已经是第二次了。 有人会问：为什么偏偏选在这一天？ 答案其实很简单，河南迎的"财神"，不就是这些埋头苦干、创新突围的企业家吗？ 去年河南GDP达到6.66万亿元、增长5.6%，增速居全国第3位、经济大省第1位、中部六省第1位，是 2019年以来完成年度目标任务最好的年份，其中民营经济功不可没。 最新统计数据显示，河南全省经营主体1160.5万户，其中95%以上是民营。 从牧原、宇通、华兰这样的行业龙头，到胖东来、蜜雪冰城、锅圈食汇这样的消费新锐，再到遍布街头 巷尾的小店小铺。 河南的经济发展、就业岗位、创新活力，哪一样离得开他们？ 说到底，"民营经济好则河南经济好，民营经济强则河南经济强。" 也正因如此，春节假期还没结束，省领导们就放弃休息，企业家们从各地赶来，坐在一起聊发展、谈问 题。 这种姿态本身就 ...

Core Viewpoint - Muyuan Foods has officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the first A+H dual-listed pig farming company in China, marking a significant step in its internationalization process [1] Group 1: Listing and Market Response - The company’s shares rose by 2.6% to HKD 40 per share, with a market capitalization nearing HKD 230 billion at the time of reporting [1] - The global offering of H-shares was 274 million shares, with a final issue price set at HKD 39.0 per share, achieving a subscription rate of 5.88 times for the public offering and 8.62 times for the international offering [3] Group 2: Capital Raising and Investor Participation - The net proceeds from the fundraising are approximately HKD 10.46 billion, which could increase to about HKD 12.04 billion if the over-allotment option is fully exercised [3] - A strong group of cornerstone investors participated, with total subscriptions amounting to approximately HKD 5.34 billion, representing 50% of the global offering [3] Group 3: Fund Utilization Plans - Approximately 60% of the net proceeds (around HKD 6.28 billion) will be used to expand overseas, particularly in Southeast Asia, and to enhance the global supply chain [4] - About 30% of the funds (approximately HKD 3.14 billion) will be allocated to R&D in core areas such as breeding, smart farming, and biosecurity [4] - The remaining 10% (around HKD 1.05 billion) will be reserved for working capital to ensure operational stability [4] Group 4: Business Model and Financial Performance - Muyuan Foods operates a vertically integrated business model covering the entire pig farming value chain, maintaining its position as the global industry leader since 2021 [5] - The company is projected to sell 77.98 million market pigs and slaughter over 28 million pigs by 2025, with expected net profits ranging from RMB 14.7 billion to RMB 15.7 billion [5] Group 5: Cost Management and Financial Health - The total cost of pig farming is expected to be around RMB 12 per kilogram by 2025, with December figures already dropping to approximately RMB 11.6 per kilogram [6] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company’s total assets reached RMB 180.76 billion, with shareholders' equity at RMB 80.44 billion, indicating a robust financial structure [6] - The company has distributed a total of RMB 16.6 billion in dividends from 2022 to the first nine months of 2025, with a commitment to distribute at least 40% of the annual distributable profits in cash to shareholders from 2024 to 2026 [6]

牧原股份近日登陆港交所，成为国内生猪养殖行业首家实现"A+H"双上市的企业。作为全球出栏量最大 的养猪企业，牧原股份借此为其国际化战略搭建了投融资渠道，但也带来新的经营课题。 不过双线并行也有许多风险需要注意。中国企业资本联盟副理事长柏文喜提示，"A+H"布局需重点警惕 估值落差、监管差异、治理整合三类风险。港股机构投资者占比高，对生猪养殖等强周期、重资产、利 润波动大的行业估值显著低于A股，可能会导致H股股价表现低于预期，影响融资效率。两地在会计准 则、信息披露等监管规则上也存在差异，企业需调整财务与治理体系以适配港股要求，防范因合规问题 导致的股价波动或罚款。此外，国际投资者更看重公司治理与长期战略，牧原作为A股企业，过去更注 重规模扩张，整合过程中可能出现理念冲突，影响决策效率。 多家投资机构入局 牧原股份H股发行引入了多家机构作为基石投资者，正大集团、丰益、中化香港、香港豫农国际、富达 基金、高毅、平安人寿保险、UBS AM等机构均在列，涵盖国际产业龙头、全球顶级资产管理机构等多 元主体。基石投资者合计认购金额约53.42亿港元，占全球发售股份的50%。 下一步，牧原股份不仅需要适配两地资本市场在监管 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that pig prices in 2026 will be lower than market expectations, leading the industry into a significant loss phase. This will mark a major capacity reduction cycle, which is expected to result in substantial stock price increases for the sector [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Price Trends in 2025 - The average pig price for 2025 was 13.7 yuan/kg, with a downward trend observed throughout the year, particularly in the fourth quarter where prices ranged between 11.5 and 12.5 yuan/kg [7]. 2. 2026 Pig Price Forecast - The report predicts that the average pig price for 2026 will likely be below 12 yuan/kg, with the second half of the year not showing improvement over the first half [17][32]. 3. Capacity Reduction Cycle - The current capacity reduction cycle is expected to last approximately three years, marking the largest cycle since 2021. This cycle is characterized by a more equitable competition among all farming entities due to the diminished impact of African swine fever [34][38]. 4. Stock Price Increase Potential - The report suggests that the stock prices in the pig farming sector will experience significant upward movement driven by the ongoing capacity reduction. Key companies to focus on include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Tian Kang Biological [3][4]. 5. Supply Dynamics - The report emphasizes that an increase in the number of breeding sows does not necessarily correlate with an increase in supply. The actual supply has been significantly boosted by improved production efficiency and a reduction in loss rates since the decline of African swine fever [20][23]. 6. Important Time Points - Two critical time points are highlighted: post-Chinese New Year, where prices typically drop, and around May/June when piglet prices are expected to fall below cost, accelerating capacity reduction [4][44].

Core Insights - The Chinese pig farming industry is transitioning to a new phase of high-quality development, focusing on improving quality and stabilizing prices to meet diverse consumer demands for pork [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for pork is increasing, with stable supply and lower prices compared to the previous year, particularly in wholesale markets [2] - Major retailers like Yonghui Supermarket are preparing to sell approximately 4,700 tons of pork during the festival, a 20% increase from the previous year, by ensuring a stable supply chain and logistics [2][3] Consumer Trends - There are three notable consumer trends observed: a shift in preference towards specific pork cuts like belly and ribs, an increase in demand for convenient packaging, and a rise in quality-focused consumption with premium products being introduced [3] Supply Chain Management - Companies like Muyuan Foods are implementing comprehensive supply chain strategies to ensure fresh and high-quality pork is available during the festival, including cold chain logistics and real-time monitoring of transportation conditions [4][6][7] - Muyuan Foods has ramped up production capacity to over 18,000 tons per day and is utilizing a fleet of 2,500 cold chain vehicles to deliver fresh pork to over 80 cities nationwide [6] Quality Assurance Measures - The company employs a proprietary three-stage acid removal and cooling process to maintain meat freshness and quality, alongside strict temperature controls in processing and transportation [6][7] - During the festival, Muyuan Foods is adjusting its pig slaughtering schedule to ensure a steady supply while also accommodating market demand fluctuations [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent listing of Muyuan Foods on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, highlighting its ambitions for international expansion and the challenges it faces in the current pork market cycle. Group 1: Company Overview - Muyuan Foods, led by Qin Yinglin, has become the largest pig farming enterprise in China and globally, with a net worth of 187 billion yuan, ranking 16th on the Hurun Rich List [4][6][19]. - The company completed its "A+H" listing on February 6, raising 10.47 billion HKD, with plans to use 60% of the funds for international market expansion [6][25]. Group 2: Market Performance - On its first trading day, Muyuan's stock rose only 3.90%, attributed to a decline in pork prices, with an average selling price of 12.57 yuan/kg in January, down 16.92% year-on-year [8][26]. - The company expects a net profit of 15.1 to 16.1 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 14.12% to 19.45% compared to the previous year [30]. Group 3: Investment and Partnerships - Major cornerstone investors include Charoen Pokphand Foods, which invested approximately 1.56 billion HKD, and Wilmar International, which invested about 546 million HKD [27][28]. - Muyuan is exploring overseas opportunities, particularly in Southeast Asia, and has partnered with BAF Vietnam Agricultural Co., providing services like pig house design and smart farming [9][29]. Group 4: Industry Challenges - The pork industry is currently experiencing a downturn, with many producers facing losses due to the cyclical nature of pig prices, often referred to as the "pig cycle" [12][36]. - The company has faced significant challenges, including a reported loss of 4.263 billion yuan in 2023, marking its first annual loss since its listing [15][35]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Muyuan aims to leverage its international listing to enhance its core business and expand its global footprint, with a focus on technological innovation and cost control [7][18]. - The company plans to maintain a competitive edge through continuous improvement in breeding, smart farming, and biosecurity measures [6][30].