ETS(002545) 长江证券·2024-09-18 01:12Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.979 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.0%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 24.0% to 275 million yuan [5][6]. - The production of potassium chloride showed steady growth, with an output of approximately 616,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 79.48%. The company has secured multiple bidding projects from major clients, indicating a robust order book in the steel structure business [5][6]. - The introduction of a 7% export tax on potassium chloride from Laos has impacted the profit statement for Q2 2024, with a provision of 108 million yuan for the tax. The actual net profit for Q2 2024, after adjusting for this tax, is estimated to be around 180 million yuan, aligning with expectations [5][6]. - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 30.3%, a slight decline of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in potassium chloride market prices. The company’s expense ratio increased to 7.89% [6]. - The XDL project is progressing steadily, with expectations to double potassium chloride production capacity to 1 million tons per year by 2026 [6]. - The company is positioned as one of the key players in the potassium market, with a dual-driven growth model from steel structures and potassium fertilizers, suggesting a stable growth trajectory for future earnings [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.979 billion yuan, up 18.0% year-on-year, while the net profit decreased to 275 million yuan, down 24.0% [5][6]. - For Q2 2024, revenue was 1.083 billion yuan, a 21.6% increase year-on-year, but net profit fell to 108 million yuan, a decrease of 44.3% [5][6]. Production and Operations - The company produced approximately 616,600 tons of potassium chloride in the first half of 2024, marking a 79.48% increase compared to the previous year [5][6]. - The company has a strong order backlog in the steel structure segment, having won several significant contracts [5][6]. Future Outlook - The XDL project is on track to significantly increase production capacity by 2026, which is expected to enhance the company's market position [6]. - The company forecasts net profits of 654 million yuan, 697 million yuan, and 730 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6].