央行宣布下调存量房贷利率等房地产支持政策简评

Group 1: Policy Changes - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in existing mortgage rates by approximately 0.5 percentage points, aligning them closer to new mortgage rates[1] - The minimum down payment for second homes has been lowered from 25% to 15% nationwide, aimed at stimulating demand[1] Group 2: Economic Impact - Over 23 trillion yuan of existing first-home mortgage rates were adjusted down by an average of 73 basis points to 4.27%, saving borrowers about 170 billion yuan annually in interest payments[2] - The average early repayment rate for RMBS reached 19.3% in June, significantly higher than 12.9% in the same period last year, indicating a trend of borrowers paying off loans early due to high existing rates[2] Group 3: Bank Profitability - The reduction in mortgage rates will decrease banks' annual interest income by approximately 189 billion yuan, which is about 8.2% of the total banking sector profit for 2023[3] - A 6.4 basis point reduction in deposit rates could offset the profit impact from the 50 basis point mortgage rate cut, helping to alleviate pressure on bank profits while reducing household mortgage burdens[3] Group 4: Future Outlook - There is significant room for further reductions in new mortgage rates, especially given the current low inflation and negative GDP deflator index[4] - The central bank's measures, including extending financing support policies for real estate companies until the end of 2026, are expected to improve the financing environment for the sector[4]