Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On February 6, the overall capital situation was loose, with major repurchase rates declining; the bond market continued its positive trend; the main indices of the convertible bond market closed higher, and most convertible bond issues rose; yields on U.S. Treasuries of various maturities generally increased, and the yields on 10-year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends [2] Summary by Directory I. Bond Market News (1) Domestic News - Premier Li Qiang chaired the tenth plenary meeting of the State Council, emphasizing promoting effective investment, using various funds and tools, and promoting major projects in key areas [4] - As of the end of January 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves increased for the 6th consecutive month to $3399.1 billion, and gold reserves increased for 15 consecutive months to 74.19 million ounces. The increase in foreign exchange reserves was due to factors such as exchange rate conversion and asset price changes [5] - Eight departments jointly re - emphasized the ban on virtual currency in China and put forward policy requirements for related businesses [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued a regulatory guideline for the overseas issuance of asset - backed security tokens of domestic assets to prevent speculation risks [6][7] - The first meeting of the China - UK Financial Working Group was held in Beijing, reaching many practical cooperation results [7] (2) International News - In February 2026, the preliminary reading of the U.S. consumer confidence index was 57.3, higher than the January final value. The short - term inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, while the long - term inflation expectation rose slightly to 3.4% [8] - The U.S. and India reached a temporary trade framework. The U.S. will impose a 18% tariff on Indian goods, and India will purchase $500 billion of U.S. products in five years [9] - On February 6, international crude oil futures prices rose, with WTI March crude oil futures up 0.41% and Brent April crude oil futures up 0.74%. COMEX gold futures rose 1.96%. The NYMEX natural gas price fell 3.16% [10] II. Capital Situation (1) Open Market Operations - On February 6, the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations of 31.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40% and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations of 300 billion yuan. With 477.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net capital withdrawal was 146 billion yuan [12] (2) Capital Interest Rates - On February 6, the capital situation was loose, and major repurchase rates declined. DR001 dropped 4.41bp to 1.275%, and DR007 dropped 2.08bp to 1.461% [13] III. Bond Market Dynamics (1) Interest - rate Bonds - Spot Bond Yield Trends: On February 6, the bond market continued its positive trend. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250016 dropped 0.60bp to 1.8020%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250220 dropped 1.55bp to 1.9625% [15] - Bond Tendering Situation: The 3 - year 25Jinchujin13 (Increment 10), 1 - year 26Fuxiguozhai01 (Re - issue), and 30 - year 26Fuxiguozhai02 (Re - issue) were issued, with their respective issuance scales, winning bid yields, full - field multiples, and marginal multiples provided [16] (2) Credit Bonds - Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies: On February 6, the trading price of one industrial bond, "23Chanrong11", deviated by more than 10%, falling more than 17% [16] - Credit Bond Events: Multiple companies announced events such as debt repayment issues, mergers and reorganizations, and bond issuance cancellations [19] (3) Convertible Bonds - Equity and Convertible Bond Indices: On February 6, the three major A - share indices fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index down 0.25%, 0.33%, and 0.73% respectively. The convertible bond market rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index up 0.75%, 0.56%, and 1.02% respectively [18][20] - Convertible Bond Tracking: On February 7, Shenergy Co., Ltd.'s convertible bond issuance was approved by the exchange. On February 6, some convertible bonds announced adjustments to conversion prices, early redemptions, or approaching redemption conditions [24] (4) Overseas Bond Markets - U.S. Bond Market: On February 6, yields on U.S. Treasuries of various maturities generally increased. The 2 - year yield rose 3bp to 3.50%, and the 10 - year yield rose 1bp to 4.22%. The 2/10 - year and 5/30 - year yield spreads narrowed by 2bp. The 10 - year inflation - protected Treasury (TIPS) break - even inflation rate rose 2bp to 2.34% [23][25][26] - European Bond Market: On February 6, the yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends. The German, French, and Italian yields rose 1bp, the Spanish yield remained unchanged, and the British yield dropped 5bp [27] - Daily Price Changes of Chinese - funded U.S. Dollar Bonds: As of the close on February 6, the prices of some Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds rose or fell, with details on the daily and monthly changes, credit subjects, bond balances, and yields provided [29]

央行重启 14 天期逆回购操作；资金面稳中偏松，债市整体回暖 【内容摘要】 2 月 5 日，资金面稳中偏松；债市整体回暖；转债市场主要指数集体跟跌，转 债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率普遍大幅下行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍 下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【市场监管总局：纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，大力激发各类经营主体活力】2 月 5 日，国 新办举行新闻发布会，介绍市场监管服务经济高质量发展情况。市场监管总局副局长、国家标 准化管理委员会主任邓志勇表示，下一步，市场监管总局将认真贯彻党中央、国务院决策部署， 纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，大力激发各类经营主体活力，加快提高质量技术基础能力，有 效防范化解重点领域安全风险，努力推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，为实现"十 五五"良好开局贡献市场监管力量。 【2025 年我国服务进出口总额同比增长 7.4%】2 月 5 日，商务部发布数据显示，2025 年，我 国服务贸易稳步增长，服务进出口总额 80823.1 亿元，同比增长 7.4%。其中，出口 36267.9 亿 元，增长 14.2%；进口 44555.1 亿元，增长 2.5%；服 ...

一、债市要闻 资金面恢复宽松态势；债市窄幅震荡 【内容摘要】 2 月 4 日，资金面恢复宽松态势；债市窄幅震荡；转债市场主要指数涨跌不一， 转债个券涨跌各半；各期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下 行。 （一）国内要闻 【习近平同俄罗斯总统普京举行视频会晤】2 月 4 日下午，国家主席习近平在北京人民大会堂 同俄罗斯总统普京举行视频会晤。习近平强调，今年是中国"十五五"开局之年，中方将更加 积极主动扩大高水平对外开放，同包括俄罗斯在内的世界各国共享发展新机遇。今年也是中俄 战略协作伙伴关系建立 30 周年、《中俄睦邻友好合作条约》签署 25 周年和"中俄教育年"启 动之年。双方要把握历史契机，密切高层交往，加强各领域务实合作，以更深层次的战略协作 和更加积极有为的大国担当，确保中俄关系继续沿着正确轨道不断发展。 【习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话】2 月 4 日晚，国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话。 习近平指出，过去一年，我们保持着良好沟通，在釜山成功会晤，为中美关系领航把舵，受到 两国人民和国际社会欢迎。我高度重视中美关系。新的一年，我愿同你继续引领中美关系这艘 大船穿越风浪、 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report On February 3, the overall capital market remained stable; the bond market was mainly fluctuating, with short - term bonds being weak and medium - and long - term bonds being slightly strong; the main indexes of the convertible bond market rose collectively, and most convertible bond issues increased; the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds of different maturities showed divergent trends, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally increased [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: On February 3, the 2026 Central No. 1 Document was released, proposing reforms in rural collective property rights, support for new rural collective economies, and measures to control village - level debt. The central bank will conduct an 800 billion yuan 3 - month term buy - out reverse repurchase operation on February 4, resulting in a net investment of 100 billion yuan. The central bank Shanghai Head Office emphasized continuous financial reform and opening - up, and promoted free - trade zone financial reform [4][5]. - **International News**: On February 3 (local time), the U.S. House of Representatives passed a government funding bill, and the partial government shutdown is expected to end. However, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security only has funds until February 13, and there is still a risk of a more limited funding shortage [7]. - **Commodities**: On February 3, international crude oil and natural gas futures prices rose. WTI March crude oil futures rose 1.72% to $63.21 per barrel, Brent April crude oil futures rose 1.56% to $67.33 per barrel, COMEX gold futures rose 6.94% to $4975.30 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 3.49% to $3.377 per ounce [8]. 3.2 Capital Market - **Open - Market Operations**: On February 3, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 105.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 402 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal of funds was 296.5 billion yuan [10]. - **Funding Rates**: On February 3, the capital market was generally stable. DR001 decreased by 4.76bp to 1.371%, and DR007 increased by 0.66bp to 1.497%. Other funding rates also showed different degrees of change [11][12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds**: On February 3, the bond market fluctuated, with short - term interest - rate bonds being weak and medium - and long - term bonds being slightly strong. As of 20:00 Beijing time, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 decreased by 0.40bp to 1.8110%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active bond 250215 remained unchanged at 1.9580%. Multiple bonds were issued on the same day, with different issuance scales, winning bid yields, and multiples [14][15]. - **Credit Bonds**: On February 3, there were no credit bond transactions with a price deviation of more than 10%. Several companies had credit - related announcements, including debt repayment difficulties, litigation, debt restructuring, and issuance cancellations [16][18]. - **Convertible Bonds**: On February 3, the A - share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising 1.29%, 2.19%, and 1.86% respectively. The main indexes of the convertible bond market also rose collectively. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 97.548 billion yuan, an increase of 12.465 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most convertible bond issues increased. Tomorrow (February 5), Haitian Convertible Bonds will start online subscriptions, and Shangtai Convertible Bonds will be listed [18][19][23]. - **Overseas Bond Markets**: - **U.S. Bond Market**: On February 3, the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds of different maturities showed divergent trends. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield remained unchanged at 3.57%, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp to 4.28%. The 10 - year inflation - protected Treasury bond (TIPS) break - even inflation rate increased by 1bp to 2.36% [22][24][25]. - **European Bond Market**: On February 3, the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally increased. The 10 - year German government bond yield increased by 2bp to 2.89%, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds of France, Italy, Spain, and the UK increased by 1bp, 1bp, 2bp, and 1bp respectively [26]. - **Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds**: As of the close on February 3, the prices of Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds showed different degrees of change, with some rising and some falling [28].

资金面保持均衡平稳；债市偏弱震荡 【内容摘要】2 月 2 日，资金面保持均衡平稳；债市偏弱震荡；转债市场主要指数集体跟跌， 转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率普遍上行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上 行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【李强在山东调研时强调坚持远近结合，抓好开局起步，更加扎实有效促发展惠民生增后劲】 中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强 2 月 2 日在山东调研。他强调，要深入贯彻习近平总书 记关于做好今年和"十五五"时期经济社会发展工作的重要指示精神，坚持远近结合，抓好开 局起步，靠前发力实施各项政策，坚决把党中央各项决策部署落实到位，更加扎实有效地促发 展惠民生增后劲。 财政部、税务总局日前发布《增值税预缴税款管理办法》《关于增值税进项税额抵扣等有关事 项的公告》，自 2026 年 1 月 1 日起施行。财政部、税务总局日前发布《长期资产进项税额抵 扣暂行办法》，自 2026 年 1 月 1 日起施行。办法提到，纳税人取得以下长期资产，用于混合 用途的，购进时先全额抵扣进项税额，此后在用于混合用途期间，根据调整年限计算五类不允 许抵扣项目对应的不得从销项税额中抵扣的进项税额，逐 ...

【内容摘要】 1 月 30 日，资金面整体均衡平稳；债市偏强震荡；转债市场主要指数集体下跌， 转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上 行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《走好中国特色金融发展之路，建设金融强国》】 2 月 1 日出版的第 3 期《求是》杂志发表国家主席习近平的重要文章《走好中国特色金融发展 之路，建设金融强国》。文章指出，建设金融强国，必须加快构建中国特色现代金融体系。一 是科学稳健的金融调控体系，二是结构合理的金融市场体系，三是分工协作的金融机构体系， 四是完备有效的金融监管体系，五是多样化专业性的金融产品和服务体系，六是自主可控、安 全高效的金融基础设施体系。 1 月制造业 PMI 为 49.3%；资金面整体均衡平稳，债市偏强震荡 （三）大宗商品 【国际原油期货价格转跌，国际天然气价格转涨】1 月 30 日，WTI 3 月原油期货收跌 0.32%， 报 65.21 美元/桶；布伦特 3 月原油期货收跌 0.03%，报 70.69 美元/桶；COMEX 黄金期货下跌 8.88%，报 4846.20 美元/ ...

作者 分析师 瞿瑞 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 债市偏强震荡，收益率曲线延续平坦化 ——利率债周报（2026.1.26-2026.2.1） 核心观点 ·· 一、上周债市回顾 1. 二级市场 上周债市偏强震荡，长债收益率继续下行。全周看，10 年期国债期货 主力合约累计上涨 0.10%；上周五 10 年期国债收益率较前一周五下行 1.86bp，1 年期国债收益率较前一周五上行 1.80bp，期限利差继续收窄。 1 www.dfratings.com ·· 1 月 26 日：周一，受资金面未见明显缓和，叠加商品市场表现强劲 影响，债市整体震荡盘整。当日银行间主要利率债收益率多数上行， 但 10 年期国债收益率下行 0.56bp；国债期货各期限主力合约收盘多 数下跌，10 年期主力合约跌 0.02%。 1 月 27 日：周二，股市午后翻红，股债跷跷板效应显现，债市震荡 调整。当日银行间主要利率债收益率普遍上行，10 年期国债收益率 上行 0.69bp；国债期货各期限主力合约收盘多数持平，其中，10 年 期主力合约持平。 1 月 28 日：周三，受央行可能推出新型隔夜工具投放流动性的传闻 提振，债市震荡回暖 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the equity market style switched, with the small - cap style continuing to weaken. The convertible bond market adjusted with reduced volume, showing anti - decline properties, and the Wind Convertible Bond Weighted Index outperformed the Wind Convertible Bond Underlying Stock Weighted Index by 0.43 pcts. Convertible bond ETFs had a net subscription of 2.545 billion yuan, supporting the convertible bond valuation. [2] - In the short term, convertible bonds are expected to follow the underlying stocks in volatile consolidation, maintaining a structural market with rapid rotation. Large - cap and dividend convertible bonds are expected to continue to dominate. However, during the wide - range volatility period, convertible bonds have an asymmetric advantage. After the performance announcements, the risk - aversion sentiment in small - and micro - cap stocks will gradually ease, and the regulatory attitude will warm up. Before the Spring Festival, a new round of favorable and policy - game market is expected to start, with the market style switching back to small - cap dominance, which will drive the convertible bond market. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy Tracking - On January 27, the State Council issued the "Regulations for the Implementation of the Drug Administration Law of the People's Republic of China", which will come into force on May 15, 2026. It supports the development of new industrial formats, promotes the implementation of pharmaceutical innovation results, and improves various aspects of drug management. [3] - On January 29, the State Council issued the "Guidelines on Performance Comparison Benchmarks for Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds", proposing 12 policy measures and identifying key service consumption areas such as transportation and household services, and strengthening support for cultivating new growth points in service consumption. [2][3] Secondary Market - **Equity Market**: Last week, major equity market indices closed down. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index fell 0.44%, 1.62%, and 0.09% respectively. Overseas, the Fed's hawkish nomination and the sharp adjustment in the precious metal market affected the global capital market. Domestically, although the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased in 2025, the January PMI index declined, and the market risk preference decreased. The small - and micro - cap stocks weakened, and the large - cap dividend stocks strengthened. [6] - **Convertible Bond Market**: Major convertible bond market indices followed the decline. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index fell 2.61%, 2.56%, and 2.61% respectively, with an average daily trading volume of 9.0209 billion yuan, a marginal decrease of 308.6 million yuan from the previous week. Convertible bond ETFs showed differentiation, with a net subscription of 2.545 billion yuan in total, supporting the valuation. [7] - **Structural Analysis**: The large - cap style in the convertible bond market was dominant due to its anti - decline property. The median prices of convertible bonds and their underlying stocks were still at a high level, the conversion value quantile decreased, and the median valuation level increased slightly. The trading activity of underlying stocks decreased, while that of convertible bonds increased. [9] - **Industry Analysis**: All industries' convertible bonds fell. Construction materials, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, food and beverage, and public utilities had relatively small average declines, while national defense and military industry and computer industries had larger average declines. The valuation of convertible bonds in different industries was differentiated. [10] - **Individual Bond Analysis**: Most convertible bonds rose. Baichuan Convertible Bond 2 led the rise with an increase of over 12%, while high - position convertible bonds such as Xinzhi Convertible Bond and Hangyu Convertible Bond had significant declines. [13] - **Price and Valuation**: The arithmetic average and median of convertible bond prices decreased. The arithmetic average of the conversion premium rate increased, and the median decreased. The arithmetic average and median of the pure - bond premium rate decreased. [24] Primary Market - **Issuance and Listing**: No new convertible bonds were issued last week. Lianrui Convertible Bond and Naipu Convertible Bond 02 were listed, and several convertible bonds were redeemed early and delisted. As of last Friday, the convertible bond market's outstanding scale was 55.2588 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.596 billion yuan from the beginning of the year and 3.682 billion yuan from the previous week. [30] - **Conversion**: Ten convertible bonds had a conversion ratio of over 5%, one more than the previous week. Some bonds had announced early redemption or were about to trigger the strong - redemption condition. [33] - **Approval Progress**: Star Semiconductor's convertible bond issuance was approved by the exchange. One convertible bond passed the review of the Issuance Examination Committee, with a total scale of 1.5 billion yuan. As of last Friday, eight convertible bonds were approved by the CSRC to be issued, with a total scale of 6.164 billion yuan. [34] - **Clause Tracking**: One convertible bond announced a downward revision of the conversion price, and two announced early redemption. Some bonds announced not to revise the conversion price downward or were about to trigger the downward - revision condition, and many bonds were expected to trigger the early - redemption condition. [35]

Economic Indicators - In January 2026, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from December 2025, indicating a contraction[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, also down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index fell to 49.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from December 2025[1] Contributing Factors - Seasonal factors contributed to the decline, as January is typically a slow month for manufacturing, with an average drop of 0.3 percentage points over the past decade[2] - The base effect from a significant increase in December 2025's PMI (up 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%) also pressured January's figures[2] - Weak domestic investment and consumption demand, alongside high external uncertainties, particularly in the real estate market, negatively impacted manufacturing[2] Specific Index Movements - The new orders index for manufacturing fell 1.6 percentage points to 49.2%, the primary driver of the PMI decline[2] - The manufacturing new export orders index decreased by 1.2 percentage points, indicating potential export slowdown due to external uncertainties[2] - The production index in manufacturing dropped 1 percentage point to 50.6%, but remained in the expansion zone, supported by global AI investment trends[3] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs were 52% and 50.1%, respectively, remaining in expansion territory due to strong exports and domestic equipment upgrades[5] - Consumer goods and basic materials PMIs fell to 48.3% and 47.9%, respectively, primarily due to slowing market demand[5] - The construction PMI dropped significantly by 4 percentage points to 48.8%, influenced by seasonal factors and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[6] Future Outlook - The overall economic sentiment is expected to decline further in February due to the upcoming Spring Festival and increased holiday downtime[6] - Future manufacturing sentiment will largely depend on export growth, real estate market trends, and the timing and intensity of growth-stimulating policies[6] - There is potential for monetary policy easing in the second quarter, with fiscal policies expected to strengthen consumption and investment[6]

美联储将进入政策观察期，6 月前降息可能性偏低 ——美联储 1 月货币政策会议点评与展望 研究发展部高级副总监 白雪 事件：北京时间周四（1 月 29 日）凌晨，美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基 金利率目标区间维持在 3.5%至 3.75%之间，符合市场普遍预期。本次利率决议有两票反对，比上次少 一票，沃勒投反对票，和特朗普"钦点"理事米兰的主张一致。本次美联储声明删除了就业风险增加 的说辞，指出经济形势有改善、尤其在失业率上升方面已有企稳迹象，暗示联储决策者更谨慎，并不 急于继续行动。鲍威尔表示，当前政策并非"明显偏紧"，通胀风险已经在一定程度上消退，就业风 险可能正趋于稳定，加息并非任何人对下一步行动的基本假设。关税的大部分影响已经传导至经济， 预计关税通胀将在 2026 年年中消退。此外，他并未对备受关注的政治议题作出实质性回应，但表示 美联储理事库克遭遇的官司可能是美联储历史上最重大的案件。他还建议，下一届美联储主席应远离 民选政治。 对此，东方金诚解读如下： 本次会议声明与鲍威尔讲话均显示，美联储对当前经济形势更加乐观，这与近期经济、就业数据 走势相印证，是本次会议暂停降息的主要原因。 ...