Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong growth momentum in the macro economy for early 2025, with a positive outlook on domestic demand driving economic performance [2][16]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic data for January-February 2025 shows a year-on-year industrial value-added growth of 5.9%, a slight decrease from December 2024's 6.2% [1][4]. - Social retail sales increased by 4.0% year-on-year in January-February 2025, reflecting a strengthening consumer confidence and consumption growth [2][10]. - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.1% year-on-year in January-February 2025, significantly up from the 3.2% growth in 2024, driven by accelerated infrastructure investment and a narrowing decline in real estate investment [2][12]. Summary by Sections Industrial Production - Industrial value-added growth for January-February 2025 was 5.9%, down 0.3 percentage points from December 2024, primarily due to fewer calendar and working days [4][5]. - Manufacturing value-added growth slowed to 6.9%, impacted by external factors such as increased tariffs from the U.S. [4][6]. - Despite the slowdown, the manufacturing sector showed resilience with a 10.6% growth in equipment manufacturing and a 9.1% growth in high-tech manufacturing [5][6]. Consumption - Retail sales growth accelerated to 4.0% in January-February 2025, with notable increases in optional consumer goods, supported by policies promoting consumption [7][10]. - The consumer confidence index rose by 0.9 percentage points, indicating a recovery in consumer sentiment [9][10]. - Specific categories like communication equipment and cultural office supplies saw significant retail growth, with increases of 26.2% and 21.8% respectively [9][10]. Investment - Fixed asset investment growth reached 4.1%, with infrastructure investment increasing by 5.6% year-on-year, reflecting proactive macroeconomic policies [12][13]. - Real estate investment saw a decline of 9.8%, but the rate of decline narrowed compared to the previous year, indicating potential stabilization in the sector [14][15]. - Manufacturing investment maintained a high growth rate of 9.0%, supported by ongoing policies for equipment upgrades and transformation [15][16].

Economic Growth - In January-February 2025, industrial added value increased by 5.9% year-on-year, a slowdown of 0.3 percentage points from December 2024[1][4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.0% year-on-year, up 0.3 percentage points from December 2024[1][8] - Fixed asset investment rose by 4.1% year-on-year, significantly accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024[1][12] Industrial Production - The manufacturing sector's added value growth slowed to 6.9%, down 0.5 percentage points from December 2024, primarily due to fewer calendar days[4][5] - Export delivery value growth for industrial enterprises fell by 2.6 percentage points to 6.2% compared to December 2024, influenced by new tariffs imposed by the U.S.[4][5] - Equipment manufacturing added value grew by 10.6%, and high-tech manufacturing increased by 9.1%, indicating strong industrial production momentum[5][16] Consumer Trends - Consumer confidence showed marginal improvement, with the consumer confidence index rising by 0.9 percentage points in February 2025[9][10] - Retail sales of optional consumer goods, excluding automobiles, saw significant growth, with categories like communication equipment and furniture increasing by 26.2% and 21.8% respectively[9][10] - Despite a 4.0% growth in retail sales, this level remains about half of pre-pandemic figures, indicating ongoing weak market demand[10][11] Investment Insights - Infrastructure investment, excluding electricity, grew by 5.6%, reflecting proactive macroeconomic policies and increased local government bond issuance[12][13] - Real estate investment declined by 9.8%, but the drop was less severe than in the previous year, suggesting a potential stabilization in the housing market[14][15] - Manufacturing investment increased by 9.0%, supported by policies aimed at upgrading the manufacturing sector and addressing supply chain issues[15][16]

Group 1: Loan and Financing Trends - In February 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 1.01 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 440 billion[1] - The social financing scale in February was 2.23 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 737.4 billion[6] - The growth rate of broad money (M2) remained at 7.0%, unchanged from the previous month[7] Group 2: Factors Influencing Loan Dynamics - The significant reduction in new loans is primarily due to the large-scale replacement of local government hidden debts, which has led to a decrease in new corporate medium- and long-term loans[2] - In February, corporate medium- and long-term loans decreased by 750 billion year-on-year, while short-term loans fell by 200 billion[4] - The increase in government bond financing, which reached 1.70 trillion in February, was a key driver behind the growth in social financing[6] Group 3: Economic Implications - The current financial data indicates a stronger support from the financial sector for stabilizing economic growth and mitigating risks in key areas[9] - The demand for resident loans has weakened, with a year-on-year decrease of 201.6 billion, reflecting low consumer and business credit demand[5] - The government work report aims for a GDP growth of around 5% and a consumer price increase of about 2%, suggesting that social financing and M2 growth may need to exceed these targets to support economic recovery[10][11]

Group 1: CPI Trends - In February 2025, the CPI year-on-year growth turned negative at -0.7%, down from 0.5% in January, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of -0.1% for January-February, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from December 2024[1] - The decline in CPI is primarily attributed to the Spring Festival timing effect, with significant drops in food and service prices, particularly a 12.6% decrease in vegetable prices and a 3.3% decline in overall food prices[5] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, showed a year-on-year growth of 0.3% for January-February, indicating persistent weak demand in the market[7] Group 2: PPI Trends - The PPI in February 2025 decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, a slight improvement from a 2.3% decline in January, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%[1] - The decline in PPI is largely influenced by falling energy prices, particularly in oil and coal, but the rate of decline has narrowed due to improved demand from post-holiday resumption of work and growth stabilization policies[10] - The PPI for production materials fell by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 2.5%, reflecting weak demand for industrial products[13] Group 3: Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to rebound to around 0.3% year-on-year in March 2025, driven by a lower price base from the previous year[9] - The ability of the macro economy to escape low price levels in 2025 will depend on the stabilization of the real estate market, external trade environment changes, and the intensity of macro policies aimed at boosting consumption[9] - The government has set a CPI control target of around 2.0% for 2025, the lowest since 2004, indicating a focus on moderate price recovery[10]

Export Performance - In January-February 2025, China's export value increased by 2.3% year-on-year, a significant drop of 8.4 percentage points compared to December 2024[1] - The export value in January-February 2025 showed a month-on-month increase of 60.9%, exceeding the 10-year average of 57.9%[2] - Exports to the US grew by 2.3% year-on-year, with a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from December 2024, indicating the trade war's impact has not fully materialized[3] Import Performance - In January-February 2025, China's import value decreased by 8.4% year-on-year, contrasting with a 1.0% increase in December 2024[9] - The average month-on-month increase for imports over the past 10 years in January-February was 66.5%, while in 2025 it was only 60.2%[9] - The decline in imports was primarily driven by weak domestic demand and the impact of the trade war on import needs[9] Trade Partners - Exports to ASEAN increased by 5.7% year-on-year, while exports to the EU grew by 0.6%, both showing a decline from December 2024 due to high base effects[5] - Exports to South Korea fell by 2.6%, reflecting broader weaknesses in South Korea's external trade[5] - Exports to India rose by 7.9%, indicating stronger export momentum despite high base effects[5] Future Outlook - The trade war is expected to further impact exports, with a potential significant year-on-year decline in March 2025 due to new tariffs on Chinese goods[6] - Import values are projected to continue declining in March 2025, with a forecasted year-on-year decrease of around -5.0%[12] - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing foreign trade and promoting new growth areas such as cross-border e-commerce and service trade to mitigate trade war impacts[7]

2025 年政府工作报告要点解读 2025 年 3 月 5 日，国务院总理李强代表国务院向十四届全国人大三次会议 作《政府工作报告》（以下简称"《报告》"）。报告提出了 2025 年主要经济 预期目标，并对重大宏观政策做出安排部署。对此，我们做如下要点解读： 一、2025 年 GDP 增速目标设定为"5.0%左右"，与去年增速目标持平，也 与去年 5.0%的实际增长水平相近，符合市场预期。一方面，当前我国具备 5.0%-6.0%的经济增长潜力，而且这也是在 2021-35 年"实现经济总量或人均收 入翻一番"的基本要求。另一方面，今年继续将 GDP 增速目标设定在"5.0%左右"， 有助于各地各部门动员各类经济资源，推动实际经济增速保持在 5.0%左右的中 高速增长水平，进而为有效保障民生就业、维护金融稳定、应对外部不确定性， 以及推动新旧增长动能平稳接续转换奠定基础。 最后，这一增速目标与此前国内外各类机构的判断基本一致，有助于稳定市 场预期。我们预计，2025 年经济增长动力将有明显变化，其中，2025 年外部经 贸环境变数加大，预计外需对经济增长的拉动力将明显减弱，而在更加积极有为 的宏观政策带动下，内 ...

资金面继续维持偏紧格局；股市大涨压制债市情绪，债市延续弱势 【内容摘要】2 月 21 日，资金面继续维持偏紧格局，午后稍转宽松；受股市大涨压制，债市 延续弱势；转债市场主要指数跟随收涨，转债个券多数上涨；海外方面，各期限美债收益率普 遍下行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下行。 债市早报 【蓝佛安：加快地方政府融资平台改革转型,有效防范化解地方政府债务风险】财政部部长蓝 佛安 2 月 21 日在人民日报发表文章《实施更加积极的财政政策 推动经济持续回升向好》，详 解了中央此前部署今年更加积极财政政策持续用力、更加给力的内涵。蓝佛安总结今年积极财 政政策将体现在五个方面，分别是提高财政赤字率，加大支出强度、加快支出进度；安排更大 规模政府债券，为稳增长、调结构提供更多支撑；大力优化支出结构、强化精准投放，更加注 重惠民生、促消费、增后劲；持续用力防范化解重点领域风险，落实落细一揽子化债政策，加 快地方政府融资平台改革转型，有效防范化解地方政府债务风险；进一步增加对地方转移支付， 增强地方财力、兜牢"三保"底线。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【李强：推动服务消费高质量发展，更好满足群众多样化服务消费需 ...

1 图表 1 是根据各地区自然资源局等官方网站的不完全统计，数据截至 2025 年 2 月 26 日。 拟收储地块数量（宗） 用地面积（万平方米） 拟收储价格（亿元） 惠州 46 226.44 127.52 肇庆 37 155.59 49.32 汕尾 19 - 22.89 江门 18 62.99 14.49 云浮 15 62.03 11.02 梅州 15 51.18 14.89 珠海 14 41.48 66.52 广州 13 84.66 22.81 茂名 10 51.31 21.05 河源 8 - 16.88 中山 3 21.38 12.69 潮州 3 14.20 6.83 湛江 2 4.97 2.63 韶关 1 - 0.71 图表 1：广东省部分城市公示的拟收储情况1 | 东莞 | 1 | 0.85 | 0.35 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合计 | 205 | - | 390.6 | 广东率先推进收储工作 对房地产市场有何影响？ 数据来源：公开资料，东方金诚整理 2024 年 11 月，自然资源部发布《关于运用地方政府专项债券资金收回收购 存量闲置土地的通知》（以下简称《通 ...

东方金诚宏观研究 节后复工及稳增长政策发力，2 月制造业 PMI 指数超预期回升 ———— 2025 年 2 月 PMI 数据点评 王青 闫骏 冯琳 事件：根据国家统计局公布的数据，2025 年 2 月，中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 50.2%，比 1 月上升 1.1 个百分点；2 月，非制造业商务活动指数为 50.4%，比 1 月上升 0.2 个百分点，其中，建 筑业商务活动指数为 52.7%，比 1 月上升 3.4 个百分点，服务业 PMI 指数为 50.0%，比上月下降 0.3 个 百分点；2 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 51.1%，比 1 月上升 1 个百分点。 2 月 PMI 数据要点解读如下： 2 月制造业 PMI 指数上行 1.1 个百分点，重返扩张区间，上升幅度明显超过季节性，主要是受两个 因素推动：一是节后复工复产，带动市场供需季节性全面回升。其中，2 月生产指数升至 52.5%，较上 月上升 2.7 个百分点，表现好于高频数据显示的主要行业开工率指标；2 月新订单指数为 51.1%，较上 月上升 1.9 个百分点，为近 10 个月以来的最高水平。二是节后稳增长政策发力显效，推动制造业 ...

作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 分析师 白雪 时间 2024 年 2 月 25 日 美国经济数据走弱，国际金价再创新高 黄金周报（2025.2.17-2025.2.23） 核心观点 上周多个美国经济数据走弱，助推黄金价格再创新高。上周 五（2 月 21 日），沪金主力期货价格较前周五下跌 0.58%至 684.44 元/克，COMEX 黄金主力期货价格上涨 1.93%至 2949.60 美元/盎司；黄金 T+D 现货价格下降 0.38%至 683.22 元/克，伦 敦金现货价格上涨 1.83%至 2934.96 美元/盎司。具体来看，上 周二，特朗普表示计划对汽车征收"25%左右"的关税，并对 半导体和药品进口征收类似比例的关税，提振黄金避险需求， 带动金价大幅回升。随后公布的美国 2 月 Markit 服务业 PMI、 消费者信心指数、以及房地产成屋销售等多项经济数据均走弱， 美元指数因此下行，进一步助推金价上涨。整体上看，上周金 价高位运行，再创新高。 本周（2 月 24 日当周）黄金价格仍将保持高位运行。这一方 面源于特朗普加征关税的威胁将持续推升市场避险情绪，对黄 金形成一定支撑；另一方面， ...