东方金诚宏观研究 3 月出口超预期，后续贸易战影响值得高度关注 ——2025 年 3 月贸易数据解读 研究发展部执行总监 冯琳 东方金诚宏观研究 特朗普政府宣布将暂缓对三分之一的美国贸易伙伴实施差异化高关税，但仍将加征 10%的所谓"基线关 税"，而 2024 年美国平均关税税率为 2.3%。这意味着从 4 月开始，美国实际关税税率仍将出现一次大 幅跃升，将对全球产业链形成很大扰动，后期外需整体放缓风险值得高度关注。 根据海关总署公布的数据，以美元计价，2025 年 3 月出口额同比增长 12.4%，比 1-2 月累计同比增 速加快 10.1 个百分点；3 月进口额同比下降 4.3%，比 1-2 月累计同比降幅收窄 4.1 个百分点。 一、3 月出口同比增速显著加快，主要源于上年同期基数偏低，外需韧性较强，以及仍在一定程度 上存在"抢出口"效应。美国大幅加征关税后，短期内除手机、电脑等相关电子产品外，大多数中美双 边贸易已无市场接受的可能性；另外，特朗普政府在全球范围内大幅加征关税，还会拖累外需整体放缓。 以人民币计价，3 月出口、进口额同比增速分别为 13.5%和-3.5%，与同期以美元计价的增速差主要 源 ...

中美贸易摩擦升级，债市整体延续强势 ——利率债周报（2025.4.7-2025.4.13） 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 部门执行总监 冯琳 时间 2025 年 4 月 14 日 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 核心观点 ⚫ 受关税冲击影响，上周债市延续强势。上周一（4 月 7 日），受 美国关税冲击影响，市场避险情绪高涨，宽货币预期升温，债 市延续强势，但周二在中央汇金出手维稳股市影响下，债市转 而走弱。不过，随后美国宣布对华继续加征 50%关税，中美贸易 摩擦进一步升级，叠加资金面宽松，周三、周四债市再度走强。 周五，由于美国对华加征关税幅度过高而无任何经济意义，市 场关税预期有所缓和，债市窄幅震荡。整体上看，上周债市整 体仍偏强，长债收益率继续下行。短端利率方面，上周资金面 延续宽松，带动短端利率大幅下行，且幅度大于长端，收益率 曲线明显陡峭化。 本周（4 月 14 日当周）债市料将呈现震荡格局。上周末公布 的 3 月金融数据大幅超出市场预期，且本周即将公布的 3 月宏 观经济数据或同样好于预期，叠加市场关税预期缓和，这些因 素将对债市构成一定利空扰动。不过，美国后续关税政策依然 存在 ...

东方金诚宏观研究 具体来看： 3 月 CPI 同比降幅明显收窄，当前物价水平为扩内需对冲外部波动提供充分空间 ——2025 年 3 月物价数据点评 研究发展部总监 冯琳 事件：根据国家统计局公布的数据，2025 年 3 月，CPI 同比下降 0.1%，上月为下降 0.7%；1-3 月 CPI 累计同比下降 0.1%；3 月 PPI 同比下降 2.5%，上月为下降 2.2%，1-3 月 PPI 累计同比下降 2.3%。 基本观点：3 月 CPI 环比季节性下行，同比降幅明显收窄，主要是受上年同期基数下沉带动，与此同时， 以旧换新政策扩围加力，也对家电、汽车、电子产品价格带来支撑。我们认为，在春节错期效应导致年初 两个月数据大幅颠簸之后，3 月 CPI 同比更能体现当前整体物价稳中偏弱状况。3 月 PPI 环比、同比跌幅 扩大，主因国际原油价格总体继续下跌并逐步传导至国内相关行业，国内需求偏弱拖累下，煤炭、钢铁等 工业品价格亦有所下行，另外，终端消费不足导致生活资料价格跌幅也有所加深。总体上看，当前国内物 价水平稳中偏弱，为扩消费对冲外部冲击提供了充分的空间。 展望未来，4 月外部经贸环境变数骤然加大，部分出口转 ...

人民日报：降准、降息随时可以出台；资金面边际收敛，债市大幅走强 【内容摘要】4 月 7 日，资金面边际收敛，主要回购利率均上行；市场避险情绪继续升温，加 之短期降准、降息概率提升，债市延续强势；转债市场跟随权益市场大幅下跌，转债个券多数 下跌；海外方面，各期限美债收益率普遍上行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上行。 一、债市要闻 【深交所发布《深圳证券交易所绿色债券白皮书》，进一步完善绿色债券市场投融资支持机 制】4 月 7 日，深交所发布《深圳证券交易所绿色债券白皮书》。《绿债白皮书》主要内容包 括：一是简要概述绿色债券从顶层设计到落地执行的整体政策框架。二是从制度优化、产品创 新、市场建设、市场服务、跨境合作等方面，介绍深交所债券市场服务绿色金融相关实践，总 结深市绿色债券发行情况。三是基于绿色债券创新、战略融合、市场开放等维度，梳理 14 个 代表性案例，分析产品情况、特色亮点、实质性成效和示范意义，便于其他发行人参考借鉴。 四是阐述绿色债券市场发展趋势，以及深交所下一步工作安排。 【农业农村部专题部署进一步扩大农业农村领域专项债使用规模工作】4 月 7 日，农业农村部 召开进一步扩大农业农村 ...

资金面转松叠加避险情绪升温，债市延续强势 ——利率债周报（2025.3.31-2025.4.6） 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 部门执行总监 冯琳 时间 2025 年 4 月 7 日 核心观点 ⚫ 受月初资金面转松以及避险情绪升温影响，上周债市整体走强。 上周（3 月 31 日当周），周一至周二，主要受季末资金面偏紧， 叠加二季度国债将放量发行影响，债市偏弱震荡。但随后因资 金面重回宽松，加之美国对等关税落地，其中对华关税幅度超 出市场预期，市场避险情绪高涨，宽货币预期升温，周三、周 四债市大幅走强。整体上看，上周债市整体偏强，长债收益率 大幅下行。短端利率方面，月初资金面延迟转松，带动短端利 率继续下行，但幅度小于长端，收益率曲线转而平坦化。 本周（4 月 7 日当周）债市料将延续强势。上周美国超预期宣 布在全球范围内加征所谓"对等关税"，冲击全球经济发展前 景。随即，中国宣布对等反制措施，这意味着在关税生效之前， 不确定性将持续发酵，市场风险偏好继续回落。从基本面来看， 超预期的对等关税将加剧出口下行压力，叠加房地产市场仍低 迷，市场对基本面偏弱的预期或加深，对债市形成一定支撑。 从货币政策来 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report On April 2, the liquidity at the beginning of the month gradually eased, with major repo rates declining. Coupled with the impending implementation of the US reciprocal tariffs, the bond market strengthened. The main indices of the convertible bond market followed suit and closed higher, with most individual convertible bonds rising. Overseas, yields on US Treasuries across various tenors generally increased, and yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies also generally rose [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Price Governance Mechanism", aiming to build a high - level price governance mechanism and improve resource allocation efficiency. Over the past 10 years, price reforms have achieved remarkable results, with 97.5% of goods and services prices determined by the market [3]. - Multiple departments detailed the improvement of the social credit system, including promoting the development and utilization of credit information, expanding and enhancing the public credit reporting system, and improving the credit repair mechanism. The financial regulatory authorities will support small and micro - enterprise financing [4]. - The inter - ministerial joint meeting on reducing enterprise burdens in 2025 will focus on issues such as "four types of irregularities", overdue payments to enterprises, and high enterprise costs, and take multiple measures to reduce enterprise burdens [4][5]. - **International News** - On April 2 (Eastern Time), US President Trump signed two executive orders on "reciprocal tariffs", setting a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners and imposing higher tariffs on some. The 10% benchmark tariff will take effect at 00:01 on April 5 (Eastern Time), and higher reciprocal tariffs on countries with the largest trade deficits with the US will take effect at 00:01 on April 9 (Eastern Time). Trump also announced a 25% tariff on imported cars effective April 3 [6]. - **Commodities** - On April 2, international crude oil futures prices rose, with WTI May crude futures up 0.71% to $71.71 per barrel and Brent June crude futures up 0.62% to $74.95 per barrel. COMEX gold futures for June rose 1.41% to $3190.30 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 1.62% to $4.016 per ounce [7]. 3.2 Liquidity - **Open Market Operations** - On April 2, the central bank conducted 229.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender basis, with an operating rate of 1.50%. There were 455.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 225.5 billion yuan [9][10]. - **Funding Rates** - Despite the central bank's large - scale net withdrawal, the liquidity at the beginning of the month gradually eased, and major repo rates declined. DR001 dropped 9.27bp to 1.739%, and DR007 dropped 0.03bp to 1.842% [11]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On April 2, due to the easing of liquidity at the beginning of the month and the impending implementation of US reciprocal tariffs, the bond market strengthened. By 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250004 dropped 2.20bp to 1.7860%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB active bond 250205 dropped 2.80bp to 1.8170% [14]. - **Bond Tendering**: Information on the tendering of multiple bonds such as 25贴现国债19, 25附息国债06 (re - issued), etc., including term, issuance scale, winning yield, over - subscription ratio, and marginal ratio, was provided [16]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: On April 2, the transaction prices of two industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%, with "17 阳光城 MTN001" down more than 40% and "H0 宝龙 04" down more than 49% [16]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Events such as the proposed delisting of AVIC Industry Finance, the update of the rights issue funds distribution by Yuzhou Group, and the written warning to Neijiang Investment Holding by the Shanghai Stock Exchange were reported [17]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On April 2, the three major A - share indices closed higher, and the main indices of the convertible bond market also followed suit. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.20%, 0.16%, and 0.23% respectively. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 63.06 billion yuan, an increase of 2.552 billion yuan from the previous trading day [18]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: News such as the listing of Zhengfan Convertible Bond, the proposed downward revision of conversion prices by some convertible bonds, and the early redemption announcements of some convertible bonds were reported [25]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **US Bond Market**: On April 2, yields on US Treasuries across various tenors generally increased. The 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 4bp to 3.91%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 3bp to 4.20%. The yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries narrowed by 1bp to 29bp, and the yield spread between 5 - year and 30 - year US Treasuries narrowed by 2bp to 59bp. The break - even inflation rate of the 10 - year US Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) dropped 1bp to 2.32% [22][23][24]. - **European Bond Market**: On April 2, yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally increased. The 10 - year German government bond yield rose 4bp to 2.72%, and the 10 - year government bond yields of France, Spain, Italy, and the UK rose 3bp, 2bp, 3bp, and 1bp respectively [26]. - **Price Changes of Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of Chinese - issued US dollar bonds as of the close on April 2 were presented, including the daily change rate, credit entity, bond code, bond balance, maturity date, yield, and monthly change rate [28].

Domestic ESG Policy Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued implementation opinions on enhancing the capital market's role in five key areas, including green finance and digital finance, on February 7, 2025[2] - Beijing's Finance Bureau announced a notification on February 27, 2025, to collect sustainable information disclosure pilot enterprises, aiming for the 2024 ESG report to be disclosed alongside financial statements[2] International ESG Developments - The Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) released a second draft for public consultation on labor-related guidelines on February 25, 2025, focusing on transparency in employee treatment and support for work-life balance[3] ESG Index Performance - The Dongfang Jincheng Credit ESG Industry Preferred Index has a cumulative return of 39.65% since January 1, 2019, with an annualized return of 5.81%[6] - The industry preferred index outperformed the benchmark CSI 800 index by 6.18%, while the industry underperforming index lagged by 55.59%[6] Monthly Performance Overview - In February 2025, the ESG industry preferred index achieved a return of 8.70%, compared to 2.66% for the CSI 800 index, with a maximum monthly increase of 4.43% on February 21[7] ESG Risk Events - A total of 22 ESG risk events were monitored in China from February 1 to February 28, 2025, with total penalties amounting to RMB 31,836,000, a decrease of 47.65% year-on-year[10] - The electronic communications industry faced the highest penalties, totaling RMB 31,800,000, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 354.29%[11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Market risk aversion remained high last week, with the COMEX gold futures price breaking through $3,100 per ounce. On March 28, the Shanghai gold futures price rose 2.24% to 722.80 yuan per gram, the COMEX gold futures price rose 2.97% to $3,118 per ounce, the gold T+D spot price rose 2.05% to 720.56 yuan per gram, and the London gold spot price rose 2.04% to $3,084.33 per ounce. Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on all imported cars and geopolitical risks increased market risk aversion, pushing up gold prices. The unexpected rebound of the US core PCE price index in February and the decline of the US stock market further boosted gold prices [1]. - This week, the gold price will fluctuate at a high level. Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy will increase both inflation and economic downturn risks in the US, keeping market risk aversion high and supporting the gold price. However, the release of the US non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate in March may ease concerns about economic downturn, support the US dollar index, and suppress the gold price. Overall, the gold price will remain in a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - On March 28, the Shanghai gold futures price closed at 722.80 yuan per gram, up 15.84 yuan from March 21; the COMEX gold futures price closed at $3,118 per ounce, up $89.80. The gold T+D spot price closed at 720.56 yuan per gram, up 14.48 yuan; the London gold spot price closed at $3,084.33 per ounce, up $61.54 [3]. 1.2 Gold Basis - On March 28, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was - $18.40 per ounce, down $6.60 from the previous Friday; the Shanghai gold basis fell to - 0.58 yuan per gram, down 1.52 yuan [7]. 1.3 Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Spread - On March 28, the gold domestic - foreign price spread was 3.28 yuan per gram, slightly down from 3.68 yuan. The unexpected rebound of the US core PCE price index in February increased market risk aversion, boosting the foreign - market gold price more than the domestic - market price. The gold - oil ratio rose slightly, the gold - silver ratio fell slightly, and the gold - copper ratio rose significantly due to the PCE data and market risk preference changes [10]. 1.4 Position Analysis - In the spot market, the gold ETF position increased slightly last week. As of March 28, the SPDR gold ETF's holdings were 931.94 tons, up 1.43 tons. The trading volume of domestic gold T+D decreased by 29.25% to 151,052 kilograms. In the futures market, as of March 18, the net long position of gold CFTC asset management institutions decreased significantly. The COMEX gold futures inventory increased, and the SHFE gold inventory remained at 15,675 kilograms [15]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - The preliminary value of the US manufacturing PMI in March unexpectedly returned to contraction at 49.8, while the service and composite PMIs were better than expected. The US consumer confidence index in March dropped to 92.9, with the expected index hitting a 12 - year low. Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars effective April 2. The US Q4 2024 GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was revised up to 2.4%. The US core PCE in February rebounded to 2.79% year - on - year, and personal spending was lower than expected. The long - term inflation expectation of the University of Michigan in March reached a 32 - year high, and consumer confidence hit a more than two - year low [18][19][20]. 2.2 Fed Policy Tracking - Last week, several Fed officials were cautious about inflation and interest - rate cuts. Bostic expected only one rate cut this year. Mousalem was cautious about the impact of tariff hikes on inflation. Goolsbee said that if long - term inflation expectations rise, the next rate cut may be delayed [33]. 2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - The US dollar index fluctuated slightly downward last week. The 25% car tariff policy and the unexpected rebound of the US core PCE price index increased concerns about "stagflation" and economic downturn, causing the dollar index to fall. As of March 28, it fell 0.12% to 104.03 [35]. 2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend - The yield of the US 10 - year TIPS first rose and then fell last week, with an overall slight decline. Trump's tariff announcement on March 25 pushed up inflation expectations and the yield, but the low consumer confidence index led to a significant decline. As of March 28, it fell 2bp to 1.90% [38]. 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - The risk in the Middle East increased, and the Israel - Hamas cease - fire was difficult to achieve. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks also faced difficulties, with both sides not wanting a hasty reconciliation and European countries opposing the lifting of sanctions on Russia, leading to a continuous rise in geopolitical risks [42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 31st, at the end of the quarter, the funding situation tightened, with major repo rates rising; the bond market showed a divergent trend, with long - term bonds performing well overall and short - term bonds weakening; the main indices of the convertible bond market declined following the trend, and most convertible bond issues fell; overseas, yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally declined, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed a divergent trend [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - In March, the manufacturing PMI reached 50.5%, a one - year high, and the non - manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index also increased. The construction industry PMI hit a new high since June 2024, indicating a more obvious sign of economic recovery [3]. - The Ministry of Finance announced the issuance arrangements for government bonds in the second quarter of 2025, including the re - issuance of 30 - year ultra - long - term general government bonds on April 11th and the first issuance of special government bonds for central financial institution capital injection on April 24th [3]. - In 2025, the Ministry of Finance will issue the first batch of special government bonds worth 50 billion yuan to support the replenishment of core tier - one capital of large state - owned commercial banks, with issuance starting on April 24th [4]. - The CSRC held a meeting to improve the cross - departmental coordination mechanism for overseas listing filings, aiming to provide a more transparent, efficient, and predictable regulatory environment for enterprises [4][5]. - The NAFMII investigated cases of enterprises evading fund supervision and regulatory banks' negligence of duties, and clarified the requirements for the use and management of raised funds [5]. 3.1.2 International News - U.S. President Trump will decide on the final tariff policy on April 2nd, and multiple senior economic advisors have proposed a new reciprocal tariff plan [6]. 3.1.3 Commodities - On March 31st, international crude oil futures prices turned up, and international natural gas prices continued to rise. WTI May crude oil futures rose 3.05% to $71.48 per barrel, and Brent May crude oil futures rose 1.51% to $74.77 per barrel [7]. 3.2 Funding Situation 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On March 31st, the central bank conducted 166.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 31.7 billion yuan after 135 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [9]. 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On March 31st, at the end of the quarter, the funding situation tightened, and major repo rates rose. DR001 rose 8.43bp to 1.804%, and DR007 rose 13.79bp to 2.189% [10]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On March 31st, interest - rate bonds showed a divergent trend. Long - term bonds first declined and then rose in yield, performing relatively well, while short - term bonds weakened due to the tightened funding situation. For example, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 240011 rose 1.00bp to 1.8075%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250205 fell 2.25bp to 1.8375% [14]. - **Bond Tendering Situation**: Information on the tendering of several agricultural development bonds, including the 182 - day 25NongfaDiscount03, 3 - year 25Nongfa03(Add11), and 5 - year 25Nongfa05(Add11), was provided [16]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: On March 31st, the transaction prices of 2 industrial bonds and 2 urban investment bonds deviated by more than 10%. For example, "H0 Yangcheng 02" rose more than 160%, and "18 Shehong Bond 01" fell more than 33% [16][17]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple companies announced relevant credit events, such as Shanghai Shimao Co., Ltd. reporting overdue bond principal and interest, and Fuli Real Estate having the winding - up petition dismissed [20]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On March 31st, the three major A - share indices fell, and the main indices of the convertible bond market also declined. The convertible bond market turnover was 62.175 billion yuan, an increase of 4.552 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most convertible bond issues fell [19][21]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Dinglong Convertible Bond will start online subscription on April 2nd [22]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On March 31st, the yield of the 2 - year U.S. Treasury bond remained unchanged at 3.89%, while yields of other maturities generally declined. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield fell 4bp to 4.23% [23]. - **European Bond Market**: On March 31st, the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed a divergent trend. For example, the yield of the German 10 - year government bond remained unchanged at 2.73%, while the yield of the Italian 10 - year government bond rose 1bp [26].

Revenue Analysis - In January-February 2025, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, a slowdown of 2.9 percentage points compared to the previous year's total[2] - Tax revenue fell by 3.9%, widening the decline by 0.5 percentage points from the previous year, significantly lower than the 2.7% growth in December 2024[2] - Non-tax revenue increased by 11.0%, but the growth rate was lower than both the previous year and December 2024[4] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Individual income tax revenue rose by 26.7%, a significant increase from 9.1% in December 2024, while corporate income tax dropped by 10.4%, down from a 95.8% increase in December 2024[3] - Consumption tax revenue grew by 0.3%, slowing by 6.5 percentage points compared to December 2024, primarily due to a decline in automobile retail sales[4] - Land value-added tax and deed tax revenues fell by 21.7% and 22.1% respectively, indicating ongoing weakness in the real estate market[4] Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure increased by 3.4% year-on-year, completing 15.2% of the annual budget, higher than the five-year average of 14.4%[5] - Interest payments on debt saw the fastest growth at 19.7%, reflecting increased pressure on local government debt[7] - Infrastructure spending growth slowed due to a high base from the previous year, but the two-year compound growth rate remained at 5.0%[7] Government Fund Performance - Government fund revenue fell by 10.7%, significantly lower than the 4.9% growth in December 2024, primarily due to a 15.7% decline in land transfer income[8] - Government fund expenditure grew by 1.2%, below the 12.6% increase in December 2024, impacted by a 19.2% drop in spending related to land transfer income[8]