Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 31st, at the end of the quarter, the funding situation tightened, with major repo rates rising; the bond market showed a divergent trend, with long - term bonds performing well overall and short - term bonds weakening; the main indices of the convertible bond market declined following the trend, and most convertible bond issues fell; overseas, yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally declined, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed a divergent trend [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - In March, the manufacturing PMI reached 50.5%, a one - year high, and the non - manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index also increased. The construction industry PMI hit a new high since June 2024, indicating a more obvious sign of economic recovery [3]. - The Ministry of Finance announced the issuance arrangements for government bonds in the second quarter of 2025, including the re - issuance of 30 - year ultra - long - term general government bonds on April 11th and the first issuance of special government bonds for central financial institution capital injection on April 24th [3]. - In 2025, the Ministry of Finance will issue the first batch of special government bonds worth 50 billion yuan to support the replenishment of core tier - one capital of large state - owned commercial banks, with issuance starting on April 24th [4]. - The CSRC held a meeting to improve the cross - departmental coordination mechanism for overseas listing filings, aiming to provide a more transparent, efficient, and predictable regulatory environment for enterprises [4][5]. - The NAFMII investigated cases of enterprises evading fund supervision and regulatory banks' negligence of duties, and clarified the requirements for the use and management of raised funds [5]. 3.1.2 International News - U.S. President Trump will decide on the final tariff policy on April 2nd, and multiple senior economic advisors have proposed a new reciprocal tariff plan [6]. 3.1.3 Commodities - On March 31st, international crude oil futures prices turned up, and international natural gas prices continued to rise. WTI May crude oil futures rose 3.05% to 74.77 per barrel [7]. 3.2 Funding Situation 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On March 31st, the central bank conducted 166.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 31.7 billion yuan after 135 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [9]. 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On March 31st, at the end of the quarter, the funding situation tightened, and major repo rates rose. DR001 rose 8.43bp to 1.804%, and DR007 rose 13.79bp to 2.189% [10]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - rate Bonds - Spot Bond Yield Trends: On March 31st, interest - rate bonds showed a divergent trend. Long - term bonds first declined and then rose in yield, performing relatively well, while short - term bonds weakened due to the tightened funding situation. For example, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 240011 rose 1.00bp to 1.8075%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250205 fell 2.25bp to 1.8375% [14]. - Bond Tendering Situation: Information on the tendering of several agricultural development bonds, including the 182 - day 25NongfaDiscount03, 3 - year 25Nongfa03(Add11), and 5 - year 25Nongfa05(Add11), was provided [16]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies: On March 31st, the transaction prices of 2 industrial bonds and 2 urban investment bonds deviated by more than 10%. For example, "H0 Yangcheng 02" rose more than 160%, and "18 Shehong Bond 01" fell more than 33% [16][17]. - Credit Bond Events: Multiple companies announced relevant credit events, such as Shanghai Shimao Co., Ltd. reporting overdue bond principal and interest, and Fuli Real Estate having the winding - up petition dismissed [20]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - Equity and Convertible Bond Indices: On March 31st, the three major A - share indices fell, and the main indices of the convertible bond market also declined. The convertible bond market turnover was 62.175 billion yuan, an increase of 4.552 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most convertible bond issues fell [19][21]. - Convertible Bond Tracking: Dinglong Convertible Bond will start online subscription on April 2nd [22]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - U.S. Bond Market: On March 31st, the yield of the 2 - year U.S. Treasury bond remained unchanged at 3.89%, while yields of other maturities generally declined. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield fell 4bp to 4.23% [23]. - European Bond Market: On March 31st, the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed a divergent trend. For example, the yield of the German 10 - year government bond remained unchanged at 2.73%, while the yield of the Italian 10 - year government bond rose 1bp [26].
3月官方PMI继续回升，长债表现整体较好，短债因资金面收紧走弱
东方金诚·2025-04-01 08:53