顺丰控股：多年布局终结果，时效国际两开花

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to SF Holdings (002352 SZ) with a target price of 41 13 yuan per share [4] Core Views - SF Holdings is a leading integrated logistics company in China with a 30-year history and a strong brand presence The company has diversified into express delivery cold chain and international logistics achieving a 23% CAGR in revenue over the past five years [2] - The company's time-sensitive express delivery business is positioned in the high-end market with a steep pricing curve supported by its advanced infrastructure including Ezhou Airport and a large fleet of aircraft [2] - SF's international business is in its early stages but has shown promising growth through strategic acquisitions such as Kerry Logistics and the integration of aviation resources The company is transitioning from a light to a heavy asset model expanding its global coverage [2] - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be 2 06 2 37 and 2 68 yuan per share respectively with a 20x PE valuation for 2024 [2] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from 267 49 billion yuan in 2024E to 350 57 billion yuan in 2026E with a CAGR of 11 4% [3] - EBITDA is projected to increase from 28 14 billion yuan in 2024E to 35 02 billion yuan in 2026E [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 6 17 billion yuan in 2024E to 12 90 billion yuan in 2026E with a CAGR of 13 2% [3] - ROE is expected to improve from 7 2% in 2022A to 12 2% in 2026E [3] Business Segments Time-Sensitive Express Delivery - SF's time-sensitive express delivery business is the core of its operations contributing 60% of the express logistics revenue in 2023 The company has refined its product offerings to cater to high-end customers with a focus on improving pricing power [47] - The company has achieved a leading position in the domestic time-sensitive express market with a 63 5% market share in 2022 [45] - SF's pricing strategy is becoming more sophisticated with a steeper pricing curve similar to international players like UPS [54][55] International Business - SF's international business has grown rapidly with revenue increasing from 13 42 billion yuan in 2020 to 62 86 billion yuan in 2023 representing a CAGR of 67 3% [30] - The acquisition of Kerry Logistics has strengthened SF's presence in Southeast Asia and expanded its international logistics capabilities [27] - The company is transitioning from a light to a heavy asset model in its international operations aiming to capture a larger share of the global logistics market [2] Cost Optimization and Efficiency - SF has implemented a multi-network integration strategy to optimize costs and improve efficiency The company has achieved significant cost reductions in transportation and labor costs with a 7 75% decrease in transportation costs as a percentage of revenue in 2023 [36] - The company's net profit margin has improved from 1 93% in 2022H1 to 3 19% in 2023 driven by cost optimization and operational efficiency [47] Strategic Assets - Ezhou Huahu Airport a key strategic asset for SF has been operational since 2022 and serves as a major hub for the company's logistics network The airport is expected to enhance SF's time-sensitive delivery capabilities and support its international expansion [61][62] - SF's fleet of aircraft is a critical asset enabling the company to maintain its competitive edge in the time-sensitive express delivery market [40] Market Position and Future Outlook - SF is the largest integrated logistics service provider in Asia and the fourth largest globally The company has established a leading position in multiple logistics segments including express delivery cold chain and international logistics [13] - The company's long-term growth is expected to be driven by its international business which offers significant market potential in global logistics [30] - SF's focus on cost optimization and efficiency improvements is expected to support its profitability in the medium term while its international expansion will drive long-term growth [33]