Planning for Transit-Oriented Development in Emerging Cities

Industry Overview - The report focuses on Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) in emerging cities, emphasizing the integration of land use and transport planning to create sustainable, walkable, and transit-friendly urban environments [17][18] - Emerging cities, which house 75% of the global urban population, are expected to grow significantly, particularly in Asia and Africa, adding 2.3 billion urban dwellers by 2050 [21][86] - Urban transport is a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with private vehicles being the least carbon-efficient mode of transport per passenger-kilometer [22][87] Core Findings - Low-carbon mobility is already prevalent in many developing cities, with high modal shares of walking, biking, and public transport, and low motorization rates compared to developed countries [25][90] - Density in developing cities is a key advantage, with many informal settlements exceeding 60,000 inhabitants per km², supporting public transport and active mobility [26][92] - Despite these advantages, many emerging cities face challenges such as inefficient urban planning, scattered development patterns, and lack of integration between transport and land use policies, leading to increased motorization and congestion [29][93] Theoretical Framework - The report uses a 3-Value Framework (3V) to analyze TOD, focusing on node value (transit ridership), place value (urban quality and walkability), and market potential value (real estate development potential) [36][128] - Urban economics highlights the trade-off between travel costs and rent, with higher densities near transit hubs generating demand for public transport [33][108] - Land Use Regulations (LUR) play a critical role in shaping urban development, with zoning, floor area ratios (FAR), and parking policies influencing transit ridership and walkability [38][162] Sandbox Model Insights - A sandbox model was developed to simulate the impact of LUR on transit ridership, showing that higher FAR and plot coverage ratios increase public transport use, while setback requirements and parking mandates reduce it [40][42] - The model predicts that transit-friendly LUR throughout the city, not just near transit corridors, is essential for creating a compact, transit-oriented urban form [43][72] Recommendations for TOD - Accessibility analyses should be conducted to evaluate the impact of transport investments and urban form on mobility, particularly for vulnerable groups like women [68] - Housing affordability should be tracked through the ratio of median income to median housing prices, with LUR adjusted to allow for more housing supply [70] - City-wide TOD strategies should adopt LUR that maximize node, place, and market values, including high FAR, low setbacks, and mixed land uses, to promote transit-oriented development [75][77] Case Studies and Examples - Japan's zoning system allows mixed land uses and high FAR in all zones, promoting densification around transit stations and affordable housing [38][162] - Barcelona's Superille (Super-Island) concept demonstrates how transit-friendly LUR can improve public transport ridership and urban walkability [43][62] - Curitiba and Bogota are examples of cities that started with arterials and sidewalks, later upgrading to bus rapid transit systems as demand increased [62][64]