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浦银国际月度资金流：资金面拐点或已出现，高贝塔股受青睐
浦银国际证券·2024-10-08 03:03

Global Capital Flows - Global capital flows are undergoing adjustments, with significant inflows into the Chinese market due to the Fed's rate cut and China's economic stimulus policies [2][7] - Emerging markets saw a net inflow of 165.6billioninSeptember,outperformingdevelopedmarketsby5165.6 billion in September, outperforming developed markets by 5% [2][7] - From September 25 to October 2, emerging markets recorded a net inflow of 154.8 billion, while developed markets saw a net outflow of 106.1billion[2][7]−TheUS,China,andJapanallexperiencedstrongdomesticcapitalinflowsinSeptember,withtheUSrecording106.1 billion [2][7] - The US, China, and Japan all experienced strong domestic capital inflows in September, with the US recording 172.2 billion, China 125.1billion,andJapan125.1 billion, and Japan 7.8 billion [7] Foreign Capital Inflows into China - Foreign capital inflows into China have shown signs of a turning point, with passive foreign capital recording a significant net inflow of 5.3billionfromAugust29toSeptember25[2][13]−FromSeptember26toOctober2,activeforeigncapitalturnedtoanetinflowof5.3 billion from August 29 to September 25 [2][13] - From September 26 to October 2, active foreign capital turned to a net inflow of 3.54 billion, marking the first net inflow of the year [2][13] - Passive foreign capital inflows surged to 58.2billionduringthesameperiod,indicatingactivetradingintheChinesemarket[2][13]−ForeigncapitalpositionsintheChinesemarketremainlow,suggestingpotentialforfurtherinflowsifmarketsentimentremainspositive[2][13]DomesticCapitalInflowsintoChina−DomesticcapitalinflowsintoChinaremainedstrong,withanetinflowof58.2 billion during the same period, indicating active trading in the Chinese market [2][13] - Foreign capital positions in the Chinese market remain low, suggesting potential for further inflows if market sentiment remains positive [2][13] Domestic Capital Inflows into China - Domestic capital inflows into China remained strong, with a net inflow of 125.1 billion from August 29 to September 25, though slightly lower than the 165billioninAugust[3][13]−FromSeptember26toOctober2,domesticcapitalrecordedanetinflowof165 billion in August [3][13] - From September 26 to October 2, domestic capital recorded a net inflow of 80.3 billion, driven by increased trading activity from both institutional and retail investors [3][13] - The "national team" is likely still actively participating in the market, contributing to the robust inflows [3][13] Hong Kong Market Capital Flows - Foreign capital inflows into Hong Kong accelerated in September, with a net inflow of 3.1billion,markingthefourthconsecutivemonthofinflows[3][16]−PassiveforeigncapitalinflowsintoHongKongincreasedsignificantlyto3.1 billion, marking the fourth consecutive month of inflows [3][16] - Passive foreign capital inflows into Hong Kong increased significantly to 3.4 billion from September 26 to October 2, while active foreign capital saw a slight net outflow of 0.1billion[3][16]−SouthboundcapitalinflowsintoHongKongslowedtoHK0.1 billion [3][16] - Southbound capital inflows into Hong Kong slowed to HK119.4 billion in September, but their share of daily trading volume rose to 16.5% [3][16] - Southbound capital favored high-beta stocks, particularly in the financial and consumer sectors, which have underperformed year-to-date [3][16] Sector and Stock Preferences - Southbound capital inflows into Hong Kong were concentrated in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, biotech, consumer services, and retail, while outflows were seen in software, services, and automotive sectors [20][22] - High-beta stocks in the financial and consumer sectors, such as Ping An Insurance (2318 HK), AIA (1299 HK), and Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing (388 HK), were preferred by southbound capital [23][25] - Defensive stocks like China Telecom (728 HK), China Construction Bank (939 HK), and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398 HK) also saw continued interest from southbound capital [23][25]