山西汾酒：点评报告：板块或可持续反弹，公司基本面居前列

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommended" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu, indicating a positive outlook for the company and the industry as a whole [2][12]. Core Viewpoints - The industry is expected to experience a sustainable rebound due to recent policy stimuli, which are likely to benefit the sector in the short term [2]. - Despite a slowdown in company performance, Shanxi Fenjiu maintains a strong absolute growth rate compared to its peers, supported by its leading position in the light aroma liquor segment [3]. - The company's product matrix is well-structured, with major products like Qinghua, Laobai Fen, Panama, and Bolifen effectively countering the overall market weakness [3]. - The valuation of the company is currently at a low point, with a TTM valuation in the 1st percentile over the past decade, indicating significant potential for recovery [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 project net profits of 12.8 billion, 15.3 billion, and 18.0 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17x, 14x, and 12x, supporting the "Recommended" rating [4][8]. Industry Summary - The recent introduction of a series of policies is expected to stimulate the market, leading to a potential recovery in the industry [2]. - The demand side shows signs of improvement, albeit limited, with expectations of a gradual increase in sales as the low base effect kicks in [2]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, particularly in the lead-up to the National Day holiday, with concerns about volume and price pressures [2].