Muyuan Foods (002714) 国都证券·2024-10-09 03:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company, Muyuan Foods, has announced a stock buyback plan with a total investment of 3-4 billion yuan, aiming to repurchase approximately 51.19 million to 68.26 million shares, which represents about 0.94% to 1.25% of the total share capital [1][2]. - The stock buyback is expected to serve as a catalyst for the company's stock performance, especially given the recent stimulus policies that may boost market sentiment [2]. - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 is anticipated to exceed expectations, with high pig prices and a potential recovery in demand in the fourth quarter, which could sustain upward pressure on pig price expectations [2]. - The company benefits from a significant cost advantage that is expected to continue decreasing, leading to a potential release of performance in the upcoming periods [2]. Financial Data Forecast - The forecast for main business revenue is as follows: 110.8 billion yuan in 2023, 138.3 billion yuan in 2024 (21% YoY growth), 170.8 billion yuan in 2025 (23% YoY growth), and a decline to 158.0 billion yuan in 2026 (-7.5% YoY growth) [3]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to turn positive in 2024 with 11.6 billion yuan, followed by 26.4 billion yuan in 2025 (127% YoY growth), and a slight decline to 23.2 billion yuan in 2026 (-12% YoY growth) [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 2.15 yuan in 2025 and 4.83 yuan in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.8 in 2024 and 8.3 in 2025 [3]. Basic Data - The total share capital is 546.535 million shares, with 381.072 million shares in circulation [4]. - The stock price range over the past 52 weeks is between 49.35 yuan and 31.64 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 218.3 billion yuan and total assets of 195.4 billion yuan [4]. - The net asset value per share is reported at 11.31 yuan [4].