美国9月CPI数据简评：9月CPI略超预期，但不影响美联储渐进式降息

Inflation Data Overview - In September, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.3% and down from the previous 2.5%, marking the lowest level since February 2021[1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 3.3% year-on-year, slightly exceeding both the expected and previous value of 3.2%[1] Energy and Housing Impact - The decline in energy prices contributed significantly to the CPI's year-on-year decrease, with Brent crude oil averaging $74.5 per barrel in September, leading to a 6.8% drop in energy prices year-on-year[1] - Housing costs, a major component of core inflation, saw a slight decrease, with owner's equivalent rent growth falling to 5.2% year-on-year, contributing to a core services inflation drop to 4.7%[1] Core Inflation Trends - The "super core inflation," excluding housing and energy, increased by 0.40% month-on-month, up from 0.33% in August, driven mainly by transportation costs[2] - Core goods inflation showed a year-on-year decline of 1%, but month-on-month growth turned positive at 0.2%, indicating a reduced downward contribution to overall inflation[2] Future Outlook - Short-term inflation pressures from energy and food prices may be limited due to weak global demand expectations, despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East potentially supporting oil prices[3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its gradual rate cuts, with a likely 25 basis point reduction in November, as inflation trends do not indicate a need for aggressive monetary policy changes[4]