Muyuan Foods (002714) 国信证券·2024-10-13 07:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][7] Core Views - The company is expected to report a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9-10 billion yuan for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 860.63% to 967.36% [3][4] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the total net profit is projected to be 10-11 billion yuan, indicating a turnaround from losses in the previous year [3][4] - The improvement in performance is attributed to an increase in the number of pigs sold and the average selling price, alongside a decrease in breeding costs compared to the previous year [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 90-100 billion yuan for Q3 2024, with a significant year-on-year growth [3][4] - The total sales of pigs for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 50.14 million heads, a 6.7% increase year-on-year [4] - The average profit per pig for Q3 2024 is estimated to be around 640-660 yuan, with total breeding costs expected to be approximately 13.6-13.8 yuan/kg [4][5] Production Capacity - As of the end of Q3 2024, the company has a breeding stock of 3.316 million sows, which is a 30.7% increase compared to Q3 2023 [5] - The company plans to maintain a steady growth strategy, with an expected total output of 66-72 million pigs for the entire year of 2024 [5] Management and Strategy - The company demonstrates strong management capabilities, with effective cost control and operational efficiency [6][7] - The company has invested in expanding its slaughtering capacity, with 10 slaughterhouses in operation, aiming to enhance profitability in this segment [6][7] - The management's focus on both breeding and slaughtering operations is expected to create new growth opportunities [6][7] Financial Projections - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 15.26 billion, 25.18 billion, and 22.87 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 2.79, 4.61, and 4.18 yuan [7][9] - The price-to-earnings ratios for the same period are expected to be 12, 9, and 10 [7][9]