安踏体育：：3Q24流水低于预期，短期股价可能承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports (2020 HK) with a target price of HKD 119 8, implying a potential upside of 19 7% from the current price of HKD 100 1 [2][3] Core Views - Anta Sports' 3Q24 sales performance fell short of market expectations, with both Anta and Fila brands underperforming Anta brand sales grew by mid-single digits, while Fila sales declined by low-single digits [2] - Despite the weak 3Q24 performance, the company has not revised its full-year 2024 sales guidance, with management expressing confidence in achieving the targets due to strong sales during the National Day holiday [2] - The report highlights Anta's continued brand strength, driven by store upgrades and expansion into new e-commerce channels like Douyin, as well as its multi-brand strategy [2] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 69 369 million, representing an 11 2% YoY growth, while core net profit is forecasted at RMB 12 064 million, up 17 9% YoY [3][5] - Gross margin is expected to improve slightly to 62 8% in 2024E, with operating margin projected at 24 0% [5] - The report slightly revised down the 2024E revenue and profit forecasts due to a more conservative outlook for 4Q24 [2] Brand Performance - Anta brand's 3Q24 sales grew by mid-single digits, outperforming domestic competitors, while Fila's sales declined by low-single digits, with its core product line remaining flat [2] - Descente and Kolon maintained strong growth momentum in 3Q24, continuing their high growth rates from the first half of the year [2] - Inventory levels remained healthy, with Anta brand at 4-5x and Fila close to 5x, allowing stable retail discounts [2] Market and Industry Context - The report notes that Anta Sports remains one of the fastest-growing brands in China's sportswear industry, benefiting from its multi-brand strategy and strong brand positioning [2] - The company's performance during the National Day holiday was driven by its new offline store formats, such as Anta Champion stores and Super Anta, which capitalized on the surge in tourism and consumption [2] Valuation and Target Price - The target price of HKD 119 8 is based on a 22x 2025E P/E multiple, reflecting improved market sentiment and liquidity in Hong Kong, as well as expectations for further stimulus policies [2] - The report outlines three scenarios for Anta's stock price: optimistic (HKD 149 8), base case (HKD 119 8), and pessimistic (HKD 95 8), with probabilities of 25%, 55%, and 20%, respectively [13]