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苹果:首次覆盖:AI浪潮如何打开成长天花板?

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Apple (AAPL US) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 2649,implyingapotentialupsideof195264 9, implying a potential upside of 19 5% [3][6] Core Views - Apple is expected to continue leading the AI technology wave, with generative AI potentially opening new growth opportunities for the company [3] - Apple's ecosystem, particularly its software services, is well-positioned to benefit from the integration of generative AI, creating a favorable application scenario for AI on the device side [3] - The company's hardware products, including iPhone, Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple Vision Pro, are expected to see growth driven by AI integration, with iPhone revenue projected to grow by 3% and 8% in FY2025 and FY2026, respectively [3] - Apple's service revenue is forecasted to grow by 11 5% annually in FY2025 and FY2026, driven by the expansion of AI capabilities and scale effects [3] Financial Projections - Apple's revenue is expected to grow by 9% and 7% in FY2025 and FY2026, respectively, reaching 421 6 billion and 4505billion[5]Netprofitisprojectedtogrowby9450 5 billion [5] - Net profit is projected to grow by 9% in both FY2025 and FY2026, reaching 112 billion and 1225billion,respectively[5]ThecompanysP/Eratioisexpectedtobe360xand329xforFY2025andFY2026,respectively[5]AIandHardwareIntegrationAppleIntelligence,thecompanysAIplatform,isexpectedtodrivegrowthinhardwareproducts,particularlyiPhone,byenhancinguserexperienceanddrivingupgradedemand[3][24]TheintegrationofAIintoApplesecosystemisexpectedtocreateacommercialloop,linkingsupplysidemanufacturerswithconsumerdemand[3]ApplesAIcapabilitiesareexpectedtoexpandtootherhardwareproducts,includingMac,iPad,andAppleWatch,furtherbroadeningthecompanysbusinessboundaries[3][24]iPhoneGrowthandMarketPositioniPhoneremainsApplescorerevenuedriver,accountingforover50122 5 billion, respectively [5] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to be 36 0x and 32 9x for FY2025 and FY2026, respectively [5] AI and Hardware Integration - Apple Intelligence, the company's AI platform, is expected to drive growth in hardware products, particularly iPhone, by enhancing user experience and driving upgrade demand [3][24] - The integration of AI into Apple's ecosystem is expected to create a commercial loop, linking supply-side manufacturers with consumer demand [3] - Apple's AI capabilities are expected to expand to other hardware products, including Mac, iPad, and Apple Watch, further broadening the company's business boundaries [3][24] iPhone Growth and Market Position - iPhone remains Apple's core revenue driver, accounting for over 50% of the company's total revenue [31] - The iPhone's growth is expected to be driven by AI integration, with the company maintaining a strong position in the high-end smartphone market [31][35] - Apple's market share in North America and China is expected to remain stable, with potential growth in emerging markets like India [35] Valuation - The report uses a DCF valuation model, assuming a growth rate of 7% from FY2029 to FY2033 and a perpetual growth rate of 3%, with a WACC of 7 4%, to arrive at the target price of 264 9 [4] AI Model and Ecosystem - Apple's AI model, with 3 billion parameters, is optimized for specific tasks and is expected to outperform larger models like Google's Gemma-7B [24][27] - The company's AI ecosystem is expected to integrate with third-party models like OpenAI's GPT-4o, enhancing its capabilities in areas like Siri and other system-level applications [24][25] Hardware Upgrades - The iPhone 16 series is expected to feature significant hardware upgrades, including improved AI capabilities, enhanced camera systems, and larger screen sizes [41][42] - The A18 series chips, built on a second-generation 3nm process, are expected to deliver significant performance improvements, particularly in AI processing [41] Market Outlook - Apple's iPhone shipments are expected to reach 227 million and 234 million units in 2024 and 2025, respectively, driven by AI integration and hardware upgrades [42] - The company's supply chain is expected to benefit from increased demand for components related to AI and hardware upgrades [42]