SRBC(600039) 天风证券·2024-10-15 00:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company has seen a narrowing decline in orders in Q3, with cumulative orders amounting to 776.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.8%. Infrastructure and housing construction orders were 654.07 billion yuan and 120.96 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -25.1% and +55.4% respectively [1]. - The report highlights that the company is participating in significant infrastructure projects through joint ventures, which is expected to enhance profitability and expand order volume and market share [1]. - The anticipated fiscal stimulus is expected to accelerate project progress in Sichuan province, with a total investment of 785.5 billion yuan across 1823 projects, of which 601 are infrastructure projects [2]. - The company is projected to have a significant improvement in orders and revenue in Q4, supported by a robust order backlog [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated at 90 billion yuan, 97 billion yuan, and 106 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 6.5, 6.1, and 5.5 [3]. - The expected dividend payout ratio is not less than 50%, leading to a projected dividend yield of 7.65% for 2024 [3]. - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 115,041.51 million yuan in 2023 to 142,250.01 million yuan in 2026, with a growth rate of 7.72% in 2026 [4][8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to increase from 240,914.76 million yuan in 2023 to 272,795.35 million yuan in 2026 [9].