PICC(601319) 华创证券·2024-10-16 08:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for PICC (601319) with a target price of 7.9 yuan, compared to the current price of 7.09 yuan [1] Core Views - PICC's net profit attributable to parent company shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 is expected to be 33.83-37.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65%-85% [1] - The single-quarter Q3 net profit is expected to be 11.1-15.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1691%-2351%, driven by a low base effect and a rebound in the equity market [1] - The company's asset allocation flexibility is higher than peers due to its property insurance-focused business structure, with equity assets accounting for 29.6% as of H1 2024 [1] - Premium income for the first three quarters of 2024 grew 5.2% year-on-year, with life insurance up 7.3% and property insurance up 4.6% [1] Financial Performance - The report forecasts 2024-2026 EPS at 0.87/0.89/0.91 yuan, up from previous estimates of 0.71/0.81/0.89 yuan [1] - Total operating income is projected to grow from 553.1 billion yuan in 2023 to 680.6 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 4.4%-6.4% [2] - Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders is expected to increase from 22.77 billion yuan in 2023 to 40.12 billion yuan in 2026 [2] Asset Allocation - Fixed-income assets accounted for 67.3% of total assets as of H1 2024, up 2.8 percentage points from end-2023 [1] - Equity assets decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 29.6%, still higher than major peers such as China Life (24.1%) and Ping An (15.8%) [1] Business Segments - Property insurance premiums grew 4.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with COR expected to improve [1] - Life insurance premiums increased 7.3%, with NBV expected to maintain high growth [1] Valuation - The report maintains a PB target of 1.1x for property insurance business and 1x for other businesses, while raising the PEV target for life insurance to 0.6x [1]