安踏体育：流水表现略低预期，全年保持谨慎

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (2020.HK) is "Buy" and is maintained [4]. Core Views - Anta Sports reported its Q3 2024 revenue performance, showing a year-on-year growth in Anta's revenue, while FILA experienced a decline. Other brands saw a growth of 45%-50%, but overall performance was slightly below expectations for both Anta and FILA [4]. - The online growth for Anta is stronger, with expectations that e-commerce will outperform offline sales. The core areas and new store formats are performing well, while street shops are relatively weak. The Olympic Games in August are expected to boost retail performance, although September may see a slowdown due to the Mid-Autumn Festival timing [4]. - FILA's short-term revenue is under pressure, particularly in the kids and fusion segments, which require adjustments. Despite a decline in various categories due to consumer downgrading, golf and tennis categories are expected to perform relatively well [4]. - Inventory levels are healthy, with Anta's inventory turnover expected to be around 4-5 months and FILA's close to 5 months. This positions the company well for Q4 [4]. - Looking ahead, Anta plans to open and renovate 300 stores during the National Day period, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth. Despite uncertainties in FILA's retail performance, effective cost control and discount management are anticipated to support stable annual growth [4]. Financial Projections - The projected total revenue for Anta Sports is as follows: - 2023: 62,356 million - 2024E: 69,475 million (growth of 11.42%) - 2025E: 76,064 million (growth of 9.48%) - 2026E: 82,770 million (growth of 8.82%) [7]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is: - 2023: 10,236 million - 2024E: 13,319 million (growth of 30.12%) - 2025E: 13,638 million (growth of 2.39%) - 2026E: 15,070 million (growth of 10.50%) [7]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - 2024: 4.71 - 2025: 4.82 - 2026: 5.33 [7].