ANTA SPORTS(02020) 东吴证券·2024-10-17 08:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (02020.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Anta Sports experienced a slight miss in revenue expectations due to unfavorable conditions in Q3, but there are expectations for sales improvement in Q4 [1][3] - The company is recognized as a leading multi-brand sportswear player in China, with ongoing improvements in store operations, product positioning, and brand strategy [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2022 was 53.651 billion RMB, with projections of 62.356 billion RMB for 2023, 68.637 billion RMB for 2024, 75.773 billion RMB for 2025, and 83.703 billion RMB for 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 8.76%, 16.23%, 10.07%, 10.40%, and 10.47% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.590 billion RMB in 2022, expected to rise to 10.236 billion RMB in 2023, 13.473 billion RMB in 2024, 13.482 billion RMB in 2025, and 15.189 billion RMB in 2026, with growth rates of -1.68%, 34.86%, 31.62%, 0.07%, and 12.67% respectively [2] Brand Performance - Anta brand retail revenue grew in the mid-single digits year-on-year in Q3 2024, with both adult and children's segments showing similar growth [3] - FILA brand revenue declined in the low single digits year-on-year in Q3 2024, with expectations for better performance in bulk orders compared to children's and trendy brands [3] - Other brands saw a significant revenue increase of 45-50% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with Descente and KOLON growing by 35-40% and 65-70% respectively [3] Operational Insights - Anta brand maintained a healthy inventory turnover ratio of less than five months, with discounts remaining stable [3] - The company has adapted to the challenging consumer environment by innovating in channels and products, such as launching new store formats and cost-effective running shoes [3] Financial Ratios and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 13.472 billion RMB, 13.482 billion RMB, and 15.189 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 14, and 13 [3][12] - Key financial ratios for 2024E include an EPS of 4.76 RMB, ROE of 20.72%, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 27.71% [12]