MILKYWAY(603713) 广发证券·2024-10-18 02:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 76.77 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 57.01 CNY [2]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2024 results with revenue of 3.561 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 14.90%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 179 million CNY, up 19.88% year-on-year, meeting expectations [1]. - The shipping rates remained relatively strong in Q3, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) averaging 3082 points, a year-on-year increase of 12.67% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.26%. This favorable shipping rate environment supports the company's global freight forwarding and mobility operations [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in chemical demand, as domestic and international chemical inventories are at relatively low levels. The ongoing policy support in China is anticipated to boost chemical demand, leading to increased operating rates and inventory replenishment, which will enhance the company's trade volume and warehouse capacity utilization [1]. - The integrated logistics service model is expected to drive continuous performance release, with the company expanding its distribution services for chemical products. The new warehouses launched in 2023 are still ramping up capacity utilization, indicating significant profit potential [1]. - Earnings forecasts for the company are optimistic, with expected EPS of 3.84 CNY, 4.77 CNY, and 5.52 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The report assigns a 20x PE valuation for 2024, leading to a reasonable value of 76.77 CNY per share [1]. Financial Summary - For 2024E, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 12.349 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 26.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 622 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 44.1% [6][8]. - The EBITDA for 2024E is forecasted at 1.521 billion CNY, with a significant increase in profitability anticipated in the following years [6][8]. - The report highlights a projected increase in EPS from 3.68 CNY in 2022 to 5.52 CNY by 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [8].