新洋丰：秋肥销售后延不改业绩涨势，看好后续产能释放

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 12.367 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.05%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.113 billion yuan, up 12.37% year-on-year [1]. - The company's integrated supply chain strategy has led to significant improvements in profitability, with a gross margin of 16.19% in Q3 2024, an increase of 1.92 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company is expected to continue releasing new production capacity, driven by ongoing capital expenditures in upstream projects [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 16.10%, up 1.41 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 9.00%, up 0.67 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are 15.925 billion yuan, 17.245 billion yuan, and 18.980 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 1.327 billion yuan, 1.507 billion yuan, and 1.986 billion yuan [3][4]. - The company’s fixed assets totaled 7.715 billion yuan, with ongoing construction projects valued at 1.288 billion yuan, indicating a strong investment in future capacity [3]. Market Conditions - The price of monoammonium phosphate in Hubei increased by 17.92% year-on-year to an average of 3,296 yuan per ton in Q3 2024, while the price of potassium chloride remained stable [2]. - The report notes that the price of urea has decreased, with a current average of 2,126 yuan per ton, down 12.43% year-on-year, indicating potential challenges in the market [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in raw material costs, which could further enhance the gross margin of compound fertilizers [2]. - The ongoing construction projects are anticipated to drive revenue growth in the coming years, supported by the company's strong cash flow from its compound fertilizer business [3].