Xinyangfeng Agricultural(000902) 天风证券·2024-10-20 08:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 12.367 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.05%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.113 billion yuan, up 12.37% year-on-year [1]. - The company's integrated supply chain strategy has led to significant improvements in profitability, with a gross margin of 16.19% in Q3 2024, an increase of 1.92 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company is expected to continue releasing new production capacity, driven by strong cash flow from its compound fertilizer business and ongoing capital expenditures [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 16.10%, up 1.41 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 9.00%, up 0.67 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.948 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.92%, and a net profit of 375 million yuan, up 24.88% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 15.925 billion yuan, 17.245 billion yuan, and 18.980 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 1.327 billion yuan, 1.507 billion yuan, and 1.986 billion yuan [3]. Capital Expenditure and Future Capacity - The company has increased its capital expenditures to acquire upstream projects, including phosphate mines and related facilities, with total fixed assets amounting to 7.715 billion yuan and ongoing construction projects valued at 1.288 billion yuan as of September 2024 [3]. - The report anticipates that the orderly progress of ongoing projects will lead to further capacity releases, driving future revenue growth [3].