HIKVISION(002415) 国金证券·2024-10-21 01:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [8][9]. Core Insights - The company has announced a significant share buyback and increase plan, reflecting confidence in long-term development. The controlling shareholder plans to increase holdings by 200-300 million RMB, while the chairman proposed a buyback of 2-2.5 billion RMB of company stock, intended for capital reduction [2][3]. - The management and major shareholders have repeatedly increased their stakes in the company throughout 2024, totaling approximately 614 million RMB, showcasing their long-term confidence [3]. - The company has maintained a high cash dividend payout rate, with a dividend payout ratio of 59.5% in 2023, positioning it among the leading technology firms in the A+H market [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are as follows: - Revenue: 97.49 billion RMB (2024E), 109.51 billion RMB (2025E), 124.56 billion RMB (2026E) [6]. - Net profit: 14.36 billion RMB (2024E), 17.88 billion RMB (2025E), 21.58 billion RMB (2026E) [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS): 1.56 RMB (2024E), 1.94 RMB (2025E), 2.34 RMB (2026E) [6]. - The company has shown resilience in profit growth, with net profit maintaining positive growth, excluding the exceptional year of 2022 [4][6]. Growth and Dividend Logic - The company is expected to benefit from domestic demand recovery and digital transformation trends, with revenue growth driven by innovative business segments and overseas markets [4]. - The company has consistently returned value to shareholders through high dividend payouts, with a historical cash dividend rate above 48% since 2015 [4].