PAB(000001) 申万宏源·2024-10-21 04:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ping An Bank, with a target PB of 0.54x for 2024 [6][12] Core Views - Ping An Bank's revenue continued to decline in 9M24, with a year-on-year drop of 12.6%, while net profit attributable to shareholders grew slightly by 0.2% [6][7] - The bank's asset quality remained stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.06% in 3Q24, down 1bp quarter-on-quarter [6][8] - The bank is actively optimizing its asset structure, reducing high-risk retail loans and increasing exposure to infrastructure, new energy, and other emerging industries [9][12] Financial Performance - Net interest income in 9M24 decreased by 21% year-on-year, contributing to a 14.9 percentage point drag on revenue growth [7] - Non-interest income grew by 8.1% year-on-year in 9M24, contributing 2.3 percentage points to revenue growth [7] - The net interest margin (NIM) in 3Q24 was 1.87%, down 4bps quarter-on-quarter, but the decline has narrowed compared to previous quarters [10] Asset Quality - The NPL ratio for corporate loans remained stable at 0.66% in 3Q24, while the retail NPL ratio increased slightly by 1bp to 1.43% [11] - The provision coverage ratio stood at 251% in 3Q24, down 13.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6][11] - The bank wrote off 47.7 billion yuan in loans in the first three quarters of 2024, a 7% increase year-on-year [11] Loan Structure - Total loans decreased by 1.2% year-on-year in 3Q24, with a net reduction of 30.2 billion yuan in the quarter [8][9] - The bank reduced high-risk retail loans, including credit cards and consumer loans, by approximately 400 billion yuan in 3Q24 [9] - Corporate loans increased by 41% year-on-year in key sectors such as infrastructure, new energy, and manufacturing [9] Profitability and Valuation - The bank's ROE is expected to decline from 10.57% in 2024E to 9.69% in 2026E [12][20] - EPS is projected to grow from 2.27 yuan in 2024E to 2.39 yuan in 2026E [20] - The cost-to-income ratio is expected to remain stable at around 27.7% from 2024E to 2026E [20] Industry Comparison - Ping An Bank's 2024E P/B ratio of 0.54x is lower than the A-share banking sector average of 0.64x [22] - The bank's 2024E ROE of 10.6% is slightly above the A-share banking sector average of 10.4% [22] - Ping An Bank's dividend yield of 6.0% for 2024E is higher than the sector average of 4.8% [22]