HAID GROUP(002311) 开源证券·2024-10-21 10:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The overseas feed growth has exceeded expectations, and the pig farming business has contributed considerable profits. The company's net profit attributable to shareholders has maintained high growth [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast upwards due to higher-than-expected pig hedging profits and anticipates a return of stock incentive expenses in Q4 2024 [4] - The company expects to achieve net profits of 4.43 billion, 5.11 billion, and 5.21 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.66, 3.07, and 3.13 yuan [4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of 84.861 billion and 3.624 billion yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year change of -2.38% and +60.95% [4] - In Q3 2024, revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 32.565 billion and 1.499 billion yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year change of -4.75% and +30.17% [4] - The company’s total feed sales in Q3 2024 were approximately 7-7.1 million tons, with poultry feed sales around 3.4 million tons and aquaculture feed sales about 2.1 million tons, showing growth against a backdrop of overall industry sales decline [5] Cost and Profitability Insights - The decline in raw material prices, such as corn and soybean meal, has led to a decrease in feed costs, driving the company's pig farming costs down to 7.2-7.3 yuan per jin, contributing approximately 600 million yuan in gross profit for Q3 2024 [6] - The company expects to sell approximately 5.5-5.6 million pigs in 2024, with Q4 being a traditional peak season [6] Growth Drivers - The overseas feed business is anticipated to become a new growth driver, with overseas feed sales in Q3 2024 increasing by 36-37% year-on-year, exceeding company expectations [5] - The company has established core production capacity in regions rich in breeding resources, such as Southeast Asia, South America, and Africa, and is continuously expanding into surrounding markets [5]