投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 指数震荡偏强，控仓过节不慌 朝闻道 20260213 市场策略 指数震荡偏强，控仓过节不慌 风格策略 中盘蓝筹周期强，往畜牧养殖调仓 行业策略 农业：生猪库存再临低位，节前测试价格底部 主题策略 军工：内外需共振，配置价值凸显 风险提示 畜禽价格不及预期；畜禽疫病大规模爆发；宏观经济波动导致投资不及预期、行业政策不及预期、军品订 单和收入确认不及预期；研发进度及产业化不及预期等。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 13 日 江韶军 执业证书编号：S0860525090001 jiangshaojun@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 ⚫ 本周指数震荡偏强，临近长假，市场避险意愿明显弱于上周。板块轮动较快，影 视、AI、有色等方向轮番表现但持续性不佳。我们维持 2 月谨慎乐观判断，指数横 盘震荡，震荡区间主要围绕一月份上证指数的高低点展开，高点注意风险，低点不 必恐慌。当下指数运行至一月高点区间，建议控制仓位，调整结构 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a cautiously optimistic outlook for February, with the index expected to stabilize and oscillate around the highs and lows of January, suggesting a controlled approach to position management during the holiday season [3][8] - The mid-cap blue-chip style is expected to continue, with a focus on adjusting positions rather than passive defense, particularly in the agricultural and chemical sectors [3][8] Industry Strategy - In the agricultural sector, the report highlights that pig inventory is at a low point, with price bottoms being tested ahead of the holiday season. The market's pessimistic expectations regarding pig prices are seen as overestimated, with a potential recovery in prices anticipated as inventory levels stabilize [5][8] - The report notes that the average weight of pigs post-slaughter has dropped to approximately 88.3 kg, indicating limited downward price movement potential. The report predicts a price turning point in Q2 2026, with the average price for the year expected to exceed market expectations [5][8] - The report emphasizes the military industry, highlighting the resonance of domestic and international demand, with significant investment opportunities anticipated as the "14th Five-Year Plan" unfolds, particularly in unmanned and deep-sea technologies [6][8] Related Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks in the agricultural sector include Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and Haida Group (002311), with a buy rating suggested [5][8] - In the military sector, recommended stocks include Huaxin Technology (688281) and Guobo Electronics (688375), with a buy rating suggested [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [4] Core Views - The agricultural sector is expected to experience a cyclical recovery, particularly in the beef and dairy markets, driven by domestic and international demand [3] - The pig farming sector is anticipated to stabilize due to capacity control measures, benefiting leading companies with improved cash flow and cost advantages [3] - Poultry supply is expected to remain stable, with potential for increased cash flow returns for leading enterprises as demand recovers [3] - The feed industry is likely to see enhanced competitive advantages for leading companies due to deeper industrialization and specialization [3] - The pet industry is identified as a growth sector benefiting from demographic trends [3] Summary by Sections Livestock - Beef prices are expected to continue rising, with the average price for fattened bulls at 25.20 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week and up 8.15% year-on-year [2] - Dairy cow depopulation is likely to accelerate, with raw milk prices expected to reach a turning point in 2026 [2] - The pig price on February 6, 2026, was 12.05 CNY/kg, down 1.31% week-on-week and down 20.67% year-on-year [13] Poultry - Chicken supply has slightly increased, with a focus on seasonal consumption recovery [13] - Egg prices in major production areas were 3.44 CNY/jin, up 6.83% week-on-week and up 19.44% year-on-year [13] Feed - Soybean meal prices are at historical lows, with potential catalysts from weather or trade factors [2] - Corn prices are expected to maintain a stable upward trend, with a current price of 2331 CNY/ton, down 0.09% week-on-week but up 8.52% year-on-year [2] Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - Recommended livestock companies include YouRan MuYe and Modern MuYe [3] - Recommended pig farming companies include HuaTong Co., DeKang Agriculture, and MuYuan Co. [3] - Recommended poultry companies include LiHua Co. and YiSheng Co. [3] - Recommended feed company is HaiDa Group [3] - Recommended pet company is GuaiBao Pet [3]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for Haida Group (002311.SZ) and "Buy-B" for Shengnong Development (002299.SZ) and Wen's Shares (300498.SZ) [2] Core Insights - The pig prices are expected to face downward pressure after the peak season, with self-breeding pig farming profits currently in the negative [4] - The feed industry is undergoing accelerated consolidation, with market share shifting towards leading companies with R&D advantages and scale [4] - The report highlights opportunities for Haida Group due to its efficient internal management and strong service advantages in the industry chain [4] - The report suggests that the pig farming industry may experience a significant capacity reduction in 2026, which could improve the fundamentals and valuations of the sector [5] - The pet food sector is expected to continue growing, with a shift in competition from marketing to R&D and supply chain management [6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The agricultural sector saw a decline of 1.92% in the week of February 2-8, 2026, with the food and feed additives, meat chicken farming, and pig farming sectors performing relatively well [3][13] 2. Pig Farming - As of February 6, 2026, the average prices for external three-way cross pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan were 11.65, 11.96, and 12.38 CNY/kg, respectively, showing a week-on-week decline of 4.12%, 1.64%, and 1.98% [4][22] - The average pork price was 18.34 CNY/kg, down 1.45% from the previous week [4][22] - Self-breeding pig farming profits were reported at -38.09 CNY/head, a decrease of 63.19 CNY/head from the previous week [4][22] 3. Poultry Farming - The price of white feather chickens was reported at 7.53 CNY/kg, down 2.71% week-on-week, with a loss of 0.26 CNY per chicken [37] 4. Feed Processing - The average price of feed for fattening pigs remained stable at 3.37 CNY/kg as of January 29, 2026 [41] 5. Aquaculture - As of February 6, 2026, the price of sea cucumbers was 120 CNY/kg, and the price of shrimp was 320 CNY/kg, both remaining stable [47] 6. Crop and Oilseed Processing - As of February 6, 2026, corn was priced at 2368.43 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.33% week-on-week, while soybean prices remained stable at 4072.11 CNY/ton [56][57]

证券研究报告 农林牧渔 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 10 日 雷轶 SAC：S1350524110001 leiyi@huayuanstock.com 张东雪 SAC：S1350525060001 zhangdongxue@huayuanstock.com 冯佳文 SAC：S1350524120003 fengjiawen@huayuanstock.com 顾超 SAC：S1350524110005 guchao@huayuanstock.com 林若尧 SAC：S1350525070002 linruoyao@huayuanstock.com 周翔 SAC：S1350525070003 zhouxiang@huayuanstock.com 李冉 liran02@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 投资评级： 看好（维持） 中央一号文件发布，强调生猪产能综 合调控 ——农林牧渔行业周报（20260202-20260206） 证券分析师 投资要点： 生猪：猪价持续走弱，中央一号文件强调产能综合调控 SW 生猪养殖板块跌 0.1%，逐步消化行业去产能偏慢担忧影响，寻底 ...

金域医学董事长兼首席执行官梁耀铭表示，将在年轻一代企业家培养、促进国民融合、服务企业出海和 引导建设现代企业制度等重点领域积极作为，同时发挥辐射带动作用，推动生物技术与信息技术融合创 新，积极助力广州打造生物医药与健康产业集群。 "广州既有千年商都的商贸基因与底蕴，更有发达完善的产业基础与创新土壤，成为赋能民营科技企业 成长的核心引擎。"亿航智能执行董事兼首席执行官胡华智称，企业的发展必须与城市发展同向同行， 将聚焦低空经济深耕细作，力争以更多的创新成果，助力把广州打造成低空经济产业高地。 中新网广州2月6日电 (记者 蔡敏婕)广州市非公有制经济人士优秀中国特色社会主义事业建设者暨光彩 事业贡献奖表彰大会6日在广州举行。60名非公有制经济人士和新的社会阶层人士被授予"广州市非公有 制经济人士优秀中国特色社会主义事业建设者"荣誉称号，授予20家企业"广州市光彩事业贡献奖"。 广州市委书记冯忠华在会上表示，希望全市广大非公有制经济人士、新的社会阶层人士和民营企业扎根 广州，把握机遇，深度参与粤港澳大湾区建设、南沙开发开放、现代化产业体系建设、推进城市内涵式 发展等重点工作，在共赴千年商都蓄势跃升的新跨越中不断拓展 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural industry, indicating that it is expected to outperform the overall market [3][10]. Core Insights - The 2026 Central Document emphasizes food security and agricultural modernization, reiterating the importance of "new agricultural productivity" and the continuous focus on seed industry revitalization, particularly in biological breeding [4]. - In livestock, there is a shift towards "strengthening" comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity, with a focus on stabilizing the beef and dairy industries, and promoting dairy product consumption [4]. - The document highlights the importance of grain security, aiming to stabilize grain production at around 14 trillion jin, and introduces measures to enhance grain circulation efficiency [4]. - The report outlines the implementation of agricultural technology, including the integration of artificial intelligence with agriculture, and identifies key application scenarios such as drones, IoT, and robotics [4]. - The report suggests three main investment focuses: the recovery of the beef and dairy industries, the expected rebound in the pig cycle, and the continued advancement of the seed industry and biological breeding [4]. Summary by Sections Livestock Industry - The report indicates a comprehensive approach to regulating pig production capacity and acknowledges the success of measures taken to support the beef and dairy industries [4]. - It also mentions the introduction of multiple measures to promote dairy product consumption for the first time [4]. Crop Production - The focus remains on food security, with a commitment to stabilize grain production and enhance the efficiency of grain circulation [4]. - The report introduces a new round of initiatives aimed at increasing grain production capacity, particularly for oilseed crops like soybeans [4]. Seed Industry - The report emphasizes the ongoing implementation of seed industry revitalization actions and the acceleration of biological breeding industrialization [4]. - It notes the continuous mention of biological breeding in the Central Document over the past six years, highlighting its growing importance [4]. Agricultural Technology - The report outlines the path for implementing new agricultural productivity, emphasizing the need for technology integration, particularly in AI applications [4]. Agricultural Trade - The report advocates for the coordination of agricultural trade and production, promoting diversification of agricultural imports and supporting the export of competitive agricultural products [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for Haida Group, "Buy-B" for Shengnong Development and Wens Foodstuff, and "Hold-A" for Guai Bao Pet and Zhongchong Shares [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the feed industry is transitioning from product competition to value chain competition, with market share increasingly concentrating among leading companies with advantages in technology, scale, and service [7]. - Haida Group is expected to continue gaining market share due to its efficient internal management and strong service advantages, with significant growth potential in overseas markets [7]. - The report suggests that the pig farming industry is undergoing a market-driven capacity reduction, which may stabilize prices in the coming months [8]. Industry Performance Overview - For the week of January 26 to February 1, the agricultural sector saw a 1.82% increase, ranking fifth among sectors, while the CSI 300 index had a slight increase of 0.08% [6][16]. - The report notes a decline in pig prices, with average prices for external three-way pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan at 12.15, 12.16, and 12.63 yuan/kg respectively, reflecting decreases of 5.08%, 9.66%, and 4.54% [6][26]. - The average pork price increased slightly to 18.61 yuan/kg, up by 0.65% [6][26]. Livestock and Feed Industry - The report indicates that the average profit for self-bred pigs is 25.10 yuan/head, down by 18.25 yuan from the previous week, while the profit for purchased pig farming increased by 8.29 yuan to 124.13 yuan/head [6][26]. - In the poultry sector, the price of white feather chickens rose to 7.74 yuan/kg, a 3.20% increase, and the profit per chicken increased significantly by 550% to 0.39 yuan/chicken [44]. - The average price of feed for fattening pigs remained stable at 3.37 yuan/kg, while chicken feed prices were steady at 3.45 yuan/kg [47]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the ongoing consolidation in the feed industry, with a focus on companies that can leverage technological and service advantages [7]. - The pet food sector is expected to continue growing, with a shift towards R&D and supply chain management as key competitive factors [9]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Wens Foodstuff, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture for potential investment opportunities in the pig farming sector [8].

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower on February 6, 2026, with the major consumption index down by 1.06% as of 10:08 AM, indicating mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - The food and beverage industry is showing a recovery trend, particularly in the liquor sector, driven by macro policy optimization, low valuation levels, and improvements in leading companies' fundamentals [1] - Optimized real estate policies and intensive domestic demand support measures have boosted market expectations for a recovery in consumer scenarios [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the major consumption index as of January 30, 2026, include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Yili, Muyuan Foods, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Wens Foodstuff, Haitian Flavoring, Dongpeng Beverage, and Haida Group, collectively accounting for 67.37% of the index [1] - The consumption ETF managed by Harvest (512600) tracks the major consumption index, which encompasses leading consumer stocks across various sectors, with liquor being the largest sector, accounting for over 38% of the index [2] - Investors can also access the consumption recovery trend through the consumption ETF linked fund (009180) [3]

今日（2.5），大盘再度震荡，资金高低切换，消费板块走强。聚焦纯正新消费的港股通消费ETF汇添富（159268）放量涨超2%！资金持续青睐，近5日有3 日获净流入，累计"吸金"超4600万元！ 港股通消费ETF汇添富（159268）标的指数热门成分股中，百盛中国涨超7%，巨子生物涨超6%，泡泡玛特、海底捞涨超4%，老铺黄金涨超3%（标的指数 成分股仅做展示，不作为个股推介）。 消息面上，百胜中国公布2025年度业绩，总收入117.97亿美元，同比增加4%；净利润9.29亿美元，增长2%，每股盈利2.52美元。每股派息29美仙。单计第四 季度，总收入28.23亿美元，同比增加9%；净利润1.4亿美元，增长22%，每股盈利40美元。经营利润增长25%至1.87亿美元。季内，同店销售额增长3%，连 续第三个季度实现增长。 | 南昌 | 什么样 | 名称 | 估自权軍 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 9992 | 泡泡玛特 | 9.01% | 4.81% | 14.05 Z | | 2 | 9987 | 百胜中国 | 8.26% | 7 44% | ...