CITIC COHC(000099) 浙商证券·2024-10-22 14:23Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, citing a target price of 29.07 RMB, representing a 42.51% upside from the current market value [1][4] Core Views - The company is the only listed general aviation operator in China, with a strong foothold in the offshore oil helicopter services sector, which accounts for 70% of its revenue [1] - The company operates the largest civilian helicopter fleet in Asia, with 93 aircraft and 11 drones as of April 1, 2024, and has a significant market share in the offshore oil services sector [1] - The low-altitude economy is expected to open a second growth curve for the company, with the market size projected to reach 1.189 trillion RMB by 2030, driven by government policies and the economic viability of eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) aircraft [1][6] Financial Performance and Forecast - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 1.97 billion RMB, a 9.54% YoY increase, and net profit of 239 million RMB, up 23.11% YoY, primarily due to growth in offshore oil services [1] - For 2024-2026, the company is expected to achieve net profits of 282 million RMB, 312 million RMB, and 349 million RMB, respectively, with EPS of 0.36 RMB, 0.40 RMB, and 0.45 RMB [1][4] - The company's PE ratio for 2024 is estimated at 56x, lower than the industry average of 91x, reflecting cautious optimism due to the nascent stage of eVTOL operations [1][4] Industry Analysis - China's general aviation market has significant growth potential compared to the US, with gaps in airport numbers, pilot counts, and registered aircraft [1][24] - Offshore oil exploration and production in China have been steadily increasing, with marine crude oil output reaching 62 million tons in 2023, driving demand for helicopter services [1][33] - The low-altitude economy is expected to grow rapidly, with the market size projected to reach 208 billion RMB by 2025 and 1.189 trillion RMB by 2030, driven by government policies and technological advancements in eVTOL [1][6] Company's Strategic Positioning - The company has a strong partnership with CNOOC, its largest customer, with sales to CNOOC increasing from 1.04 billion RMB in 2020 to 1.33 billion RMB in 2023 [1] - The company is actively exploring low-altitude economy opportunities, including urban air mobility, low-altitude tourism, and drone logistics, with partnerships with eVTOL manufacturers like Lilium and WoFly [1][6] - The company is involved in setting industry standards for eVTOL operations and has secured contracts for drone logistics, such as the China Post drone delivery project [1][6] Market Catalysts - The company's growth is expected to be driven by the expansion of low-altitude routes, obtaining operational certificates, and deepening partnerships with leading eVTOL companies [7] - Government policies supporting the low-altitude economy, particularly in emergency rescue and low-altitude tourism, are expected to accelerate the company's growth [6][45]