GANYUAN FOODS CO.(002991) 华创证券·2024-10-23 08:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 80 yuan [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.606 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.23%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 277 million yuan, up 29.48% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 563 million yuan, a 15.58% increase compared to the same quarter last year, with a net profit of 111 million yuan, reflecting a 17.1% year-on-year growth [1]. - The report highlights significant contributions from bulk and overseas sales channels, with Q3 revenue slightly exceeding expectations [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2024 was 36.8%, a decrease of 0.74 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the increased sales of high-cost performance products [1]. - The report notes an increase in operating expenses due to organizational restructuring, with the sales, management, and R&D expense ratios rising [1]. - The effective tax rate for Q3 2024 was 15.48%, down 7.79 percentage points year-on-year, positively impacting profitability [1]. Future Outlook - Short-term growth momentum is expected to continue, with improvements in channel organization capabilities [1]. - The report anticipates that the upcoming holiday season will catalyze further revenue growth in Q4, supported by a low base effect from the previous year [1]. - Long-term prospects remain positive, with the company’s product strength and channel capabilities expected to support continued high growth in the coming years [1]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 2.235 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.0%. The net profit is expected to reach 396 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 20.4% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 4.25 yuan for 2024, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15, 13, and 11 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2].