GANYUAN FOODS CO.(002991) 华金证券·2024-10-24 08:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy-B" [1] Core Views - The company's revenue growth accelerated in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 22.23% in the first three quarters, and net profit growth exceeded expectations [1] - The company's revenue in Q3 2024 reached 5.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.58%, with net profit of 1.11 billion yuan, up 17.10% year-on-year [1] - The company's gross profit margin in Q3 2024 was 36.80%, a slight decrease of 0.74 percentage points year-on-year, but the net profit margin increased by 0.25 percentage points to 19.66% due to tax benefits [1] - The company's overseas market expansion and product diversification are expected to drive future growth, with revenue and net profit forecasts adjusted upward for 2024-2026 [1] Revenue Analysis - The company's revenue growth in Q3 2024 improved compared to Q2, driven by effective adjustments in channel structure and personnel [1] - Classic products such as "Lao San Yang" maintained steady growth, while new products like mixed nuts and bean snacks performed well in the market [1] - The snack retail and overseas channels contributed significantly to revenue growth, while traditional KA and BC channels were affected by macroeconomic factors and channel diversion [1] Profit Analysis - The company's gross profit margin declined slightly due to increased online promotions and a higher proportion of low-margin snack retail channels [1] - Sales expenses increased by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year in Q3 2024, mainly due to team expansion and increased wages and bonuses [1] - The company's net profit margin improved due to a lower corporate tax rate following its recognition as a high-tech enterprise [1] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue for 2024E is forecasted to be 23.03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 24.6% [3] - Net profit for 2024E is expected to reach 390 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.4% [3] - The company's P/E ratio for 2024E is 16.8x, lower than the industry average of 20x [1][3] - The company's ROE is expected to increase from 19.5% in 2023A to 20.8% in 2024E [3] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - The company's total assets are expected to grow from 2.095 billion yuan in 2023A to 2.466 billion yuan in 2024E [4] - Operating cash flow is forecasted to increase from 258 million yuan in 2023A to 552 million yuan in 2024E [4] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase from 19.6% in 2023A to 24.1% in 2024E [4]