蒙牛乳业：关键词：#股息率高#比同类公司便宜#困境反转

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has a strong foundation built over 20 years, with a new strategic plan aimed at achieving a "new Mengniu" under the leadership of the new CEO [1] - The company is positioned as a leader in the dairy industry, with a solid supply chain and marketing strategy that enhances its competitive edge [1] - Short-term benefits are expected from the liquid milk segment, while long-term focus is on structural upgrades and diversification into multiple product categories [1] Summary by Sections 1. Company Development - Established in 1999 and listed in 2004, the company has undergone five management changes, with the latest CEO taking office in March 2024 [1][26] - The company aims to leverage its traditional strengths while expanding internationally and innovating [1] 2. Competitive Position - The company has strengthened its control over high-quality milk sources through strategic partnerships and acquisitions, maintaining a significant market share in fresh milk [1] - The marketing strategy includes a dual-brand framework that enhances brand power and market presence [1] 3. Liquid Milk Growth - Short-term performance is expected to improve as the industry moves towards supply-demand balance by 2025, with the company poised to benefit from this shift [1] - Long-term growth is anticipated through upgrades in high-end products and expansion in low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt segments [1] 4. Diversification and Internationalization - The company is expanding into cheese and ice cream markets, with significant potential in Southeast Asia through recent acquisitions [1] - The strategic focus on multiple product categories is expected to enhance overall growth and market presence [1] 5. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to increase its dividend payout and has initiated a share buyback program, aiming to enhance shareholder returns [1] - The report forecasts a steady improvement in cash flow and operational efficiency, supporting the anticipated increase in dividends [1] 6. Earnings Forecast and Investment Advice - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are set at 927.4 billion, 955.4 billion, and 980.6 billion respectively, with corresponding net profit estimates of 43 billion, 48.4 billion, and 53.2 billion [1] - The company is expected to maintain a lower P/E ratio compared to peers, reinforcing the "Buy" rating [1]