蒙牛乳业：见龙在田，继往开来

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has a strong foundation built over 20 years, with a new strategic plan aimed at achieving a "new Mengniu" under the leadership of the new president [1] - The company is well-positioned in the dairy industry with a solid supply chain, marketing strategies, and a focus on product innovation [1] - Short-term benefits are expected from the liquid milk segment, while long-term growth will focus on structural upgrades and international expansion [1] Summary by Sections 1. Company Development - Established in 1999 and listed in 2004, the company has undergone several management changes and strategic evolutions, with a focus on traditional strengths and international innovation [1][26] - The company has diversified its product offerings across various categories, including liquid milk, ice cream, milk powder, and cheese [1][26] 2. Competitive Position - The company has strengthened its control over high-quality milk sources through strategic partnerships and acquisitions, maintaining a significant market share in fresh milk [1][39] - Marketing efforts have been enhanced through a dual-brand strategy, leading to a strong brand presence in the industry [1] 3. Liquid Milk Growth - The company is expected to benefit from an upward cycle in the dairy price and a potential turning point in profitability due to improved supply-demand dynamics [1] - Long-term focus includes upgrading the product structure, particularly in high-end milk products and yogurt [1] 4. Strategic Layout and International Expansion - The company is expanding into cheese and ice cream markets, with significant growth potential in Southeast Asia through acquisitions [1][39] - The international strategy is supported by strong partnerships and acquisitions that enhance the company's competitive edge [1] 5. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to increase its dividend payout and share buyback programs, enhancing shareholder returns [1] - The report anticipates improved cash flow and operational efficiency, leading to a sustainable increase in shareholder value [1] 6. Earnings Forecast and Investment Advice - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are set at 927.4 billion, 955.4 billion, and 980.6 billion respectively, with corresponding net profit estimates of 43 billion, 48.4 billion, and 53.2 billion [1] - The company is expected to maintain a lower P/E ratio compared to peers, reinforcing the "Buy" rating [1]