GDPD(600795) 申万宏源·2024-10-25 06:55Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 133.86 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 63.41% to 9.19 billion yuan [5] - The decline in coal prices has improved profitability, with the average on-grid electricity price remaining stable at 410.48 yuan per megawatt-hour [5] - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming commissioning of the Shuangjiangkou hydropower station, which is projected to enhance revenue [5] - The company’s renewable energy capacity is accelerating, with significant growth in solar power generation [6] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 5.24 yuan - Market capitalization: 93,459 million yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 1.7 - Dividend yield: 1.34% [2] Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 2.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.47% [5] - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 183.57 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.4% [9] Operational Highlights - The company’s coal-fired power generation saw a slight decrease in output, but the decline in coal prices has led to improved margins [5] - Hydropower generation growth slowed due to reduced water levels in Sichuan, but future projects are expected to drive growth [5] - The company’s wind power generation increased by 5.44% year-on-year, with significant growth expected in the upcoming quarters [6] Profitability Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are 10.99 billion, 9.30 billion, and 9.83 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 9, 10, and 10 [5][9]