YANKUANG ENERGY(600188) 国泰君安·2024-10-26 15:09Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [3][4] Core Views - Q3 performance met expectations, with strong production recovery in Australia driving year-on-year improvement in production and sales [2][3] - Coal prices increased quarter-on-quarter, and costs continued to optimize, leading to higher-than-expected selling prices and gross profit per ton in Q3 [2][3] - The company achieved revenue of RMB 106.633 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 21.03%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 11.405 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 26.54% [3] - Q3 revenue was RMB 34.321 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 32.22% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.03%, with net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 3.837 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 27.81% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.66% [3] - The company's EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 were revised upward to RMB 1.60, RMB 1.78, and RMB 1.98, respectively [3] - The target price was raised to RMB 18.31 based on a 2024 average PE of 11.47x for comparable companies [3] Production and Sales - Q3 coal production in Australia increased significantly, driving year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter improvements in production and sales [3] - In the first three quarters, coal production reached 106 million tons, up 8.75% year-on-year, with coal sales of 101 million tons, up 2.18% year-on-year [3] - Q3 coal production was 36.73 million tons, up 9.81% year-on-year and 6.65% quarter-on-quarter, while coal sales were 33.46 million tons, up 0.68% year-on-year but down 8.6% quarter-on-quarter [3] - Self-produced coal sales in Q3 were 31.85 million tons, up 6.87% year-on-year but down 2.48% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The company expects Q4 production to remain flat or slightly increase compared to Q3, supported by continued recovery in Australian production and new capacity releases [3] Coal Prices and Costs - The average coal selling price in the first three quarters was RMB 683 per ton, down RMB 158 per ton year-on-year (-19%), while the cost per ton was RMB 379, down RMB 66 per ton year-on-year (-15%) [3] - Q3 coal selling price was RMB 680 per ton, down RMB 201 year-on-year (-23%) but up RMB 12 quarter-on-quarter (+17%) [3] - Q3 cost per ton was RMB 356, down RMB 107 year-on-year (-23%) and RMB 21.3 quarter-on-quarter (-5.6%), with gross profit per ton reaching RMB 342, up RMB 40 quarter-on-quarter (+13%) [3] Coal Chemical Business - The coal chemical business operated steadily, with significant quarter-on-quarter increases in production and sales in Q3 [3] - In the first three quarters, coal chemical production totaled 6.355 million tons, down 3.14 million tons year-on-year, while sales were 5.697 million tons, down 198,000 tons year-on-year [3] - Q3 coal chemical production was 2.174 million tons, up 22.7% quarter-on-quarter, with sales of 1.95 million tons, up 14.7% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The coal chemical segment generated revenue of RMB 18.708 billion, down 5% year-on-year, with a gross profit of RMB 3.864 billion, flat year-on-year [3] Financial Summary - The company's total market capitalization is RMB 159.533 billion, with a current share price of RMB 15.89 [4] - The 52-week price range is RMB 12.80-27.47 [4] - The company's net debt ratio is 55.65%, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.1x [5] - The company's ROE is expected to be 17.8% in 2024, 18.4% in 2025, and 18.9% in 2026 [8] - The company's EPS is forecasted to be RMB 1.60 in 2024, RMB 1.78 in 2025, and RMB 1.98 in 2026 [8] Valuation and Peers - The company's 2024E PE is 9.95x, compared to the peer average of 11.47x [10] - Comparable companies include Shaanxi Coal (11.14x 2024E PE), Shaanxi Energy (12.13x 2024E PE), China Shenhua (13.57x 2024E PE), and Xinji Energy (9.03x 2024E PE) [10]