Investment Rating - The report downgrades the company's rating to "Overweight" from a previous rating, reflecting a cautious outlook on its future performance [3][7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.47 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, but net profit attributable to the parent company declined by 4.2% to 510 million yuan [1] - The decline in profitability is attributed to a decrease in gross margin and an increase in expense ratio, with the net profit margin dropping by 5.0 percentage points to 35.0% [1] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue grew by 11.9% year-on-year to 530 million yuan, while net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 5.2% to 170 million yuan [1] - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 81.6%, with Q3 showing a slight improvement of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous quarters [2] - The expense ratio increased by 6.6 percentage points to 35.3%, driven by higher sales expenses due to increased marketing and e-commerce channel investments [2] - Inventory as of September 2024 increased by 17.2% compared to the beginning of the year, reaching 140 million yuan, while accounts receivable decreased significantly by 95.82% to 760,000 yuan [2] - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters decreased by 19.8% to 470 million yuan [2] Financial Performance - The company's medical device and cosmetics revenue grew by approximately 17% and 4% year-on-year, respectively, in the first three quarters of 2024 [3] - The company now has six products with sales exceeding 100 million yuan, with new products such as eye masks and grape seed masks performing well [3] - Online sales grew faster compared to the same period last year, while offline sales showed steady growth [3] - The company's EPS for 2024/2025/2026 is forecasted to be 1.79/1.96/2.15 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20/18/17 times [3] - The report revised the company's profit forecasts downward, with net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 and 2025 reduced by 15% and 13%, respectively [3] Market Data - The company's total market capitalization is 14.52 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 400 million shares [8] - The stock price range over the past year was between 24.47 yuan and 48.63 yuan, with a 3-month turnover rate of 23.59% [8] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024E/2025E/2026E is projected to be 2.13/2.36/2.59 billion yuan, with growth rates of 10.22%/10.52%/9.81% [4] - Net profit for 2024E/2025E/2026E is expected to be 715/786/859 million yuan, with growth rates of -4.53%/9.89%/9.32% [4] - ROE (diluted) for 2024E/2025E/2026E is forecasted to be 12.09%/12.43%/12.70% [4] - The company's P/B ratio for 2024E/2025E/2026E is projected to be 2.5/2.3/2.1 times [4]
敷尔佳：2024年三季报点评：Q3收入增长而利润下滑，坚持平衡增长和高利润率