Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 400 million and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 85 million for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.8% and 28.8% respectively. In Q3 alone, revenue was 140 million, down 26.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 33 million, down 43.0% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in Q3 revenue is attributed to both internal and external factors, including a focus on high-end customer segments, which have been impacted by outbound tourism and macroeconomic pressures, as well as extreme weather conditions and high base effects from the previous year [1]. - Despite the revenue decline, operational efficiency improved, with a decrease in expense ratios offsetting the revenue drop, leading to an increase in profit margins. The gross margin for Q3 was 54.1%, down 5.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 27.3%, down 7.4 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company is currently in a transitional phase but has positive mid-term growth prospects, particularly with the expected boost in customer flow following the opening of the Hu-Su-Lake high-speed railway in late 2024 and ongoing development of new tourism projects [1]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 120 million, 130 million, and 160 million for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 27X, 25X, and 19X [1][2]. Financial Forecast Summary - The company’s projected financial metrics for 2023A to 2026E include: - Revenue: 629.89 million in 2023, expected to decline to 589.29 million in 2024, then gradually increase to 698.00 million by 2026 [2]. - Net Profit: 147 million in 2023, projected to decrease to 116.09 million in 2024, with a recovery to 164.75 million by 2026 [2]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): Expected to be 0.54 in 2023, decreasing to 0.43 in 2024, and then increasing to 0.61 by 2026 [2].
天目湖:暑期经营延续承压态势,关注储备项目进展