中国海外发展：销售显韧性，投资强聚焦

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Overseas Development, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [2][6]. Core Insights - The company experienced a decline in revenue and profit during the current period, attributed to project turnover timing and the structural impact of high land prices and low-margin projects [4]. - Despite the challenges, the company demonstrated strong sales resilience, outperforming the top 10 real estate companies in terms of sales decline [4]. - The company is focusing its investments on first and second-tier cities, maintaining a strong land acquisition strategy [4]. - Financially, the company remains robust with low net debt ratios and financing costs, positioning it well for future recovery [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 180,322 million RMB, with a projected revenue of 202,524 million RMB for 2023, reflecting a growth rate of 12.31% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was 23,265 million RMB, with a forecasted net profit of 25,610 million RMB for 2023, indicating a growth rate of 10.08% [3]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2022 was 2.13 RMB, expected to be 2.34 RMB in 2023 [3]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 5.39 for 2023, indicating a favorable valuation [3]. Sales and Market Position - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved sales of 198.848 billion RMB, a decline of 16.8% year-on-year, while the top 10 real estate companies saw a decline of 32.5% [4]. - The company ranked second among the top 100 real estate companies in terms of sales, improving its position from the previous year [4]. Land Acquisition Strategy - In the first nine months of 2024, the company acquired land in 9 cities with a total investment of 20.3 billion RMB, focusing heavily on first and second-tier cities [4]. - The equity acquisition amount reached 18.6 billion RMB, with an equity ratio of 91.5% [4]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects a slight decrease in net profit for 2024 to 24.252 billion RMB, with expected growth rates of 7.2% and 4.2% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E valuation of 6.0x for 2024, indicating potential for future appreciation [4].