凯因科技：利润超预期，营销效率显著提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [2][12]. Core Views - The company's profit exceeded expectations, with significant improvements in marketing efficiency. The sales revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 1.011 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.82%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 108 million yuan, up 19.74% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved sales revenue of 414 million yuan, a decrease of 4.51% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 26.53% year-on-year, primarily due to a significant reduction in sales expenses [1]. - The company plans to acquire an additional 5% stake in its subsidiary, increasing its ownership from 76% to 81% [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a sales expense ratio of 48.76%, down 9.08 percentage points year-on-year, with absolute sales expenses of 493 million yuan, a decrease of 15% [1]. - The R&D expense ratio was 10.29%, up 3.49 percentage points year-on-year, with absolute R&D expenses of 104 million yuan, an increase of 52.54% [1]. - The management expense ratio was 8.59%, up 1.57 percentage points year-on-year, with absolute management expenses of 86.79 million yuan, an increase of 23.42% [1]. - The company’s gross profit margin was 81.94%, a decrease of 1.39 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s innovative drug for hepatitis C, Kai Li Wei, has expanded its reimbursement indications, which is expected to enhance market share. The existing product Jin Shu Xi is projected to reach sales of over 1 billion yuan [1]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 140 million yuan, 183 million yuan, and 245 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.4%, 30.8%, and 33.4% respectively [2][1]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 35X, 26X, and 20X for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [1].