兖矿能源：煤化工及海外经营向好，业绩环比继续改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) [1][2] Core Views - The company's coal chemical and overseas operations are performing well, leading to continued improvement in performance on a quarter-on-quarter basis [1][2] - The company plans to invest 9.574 billion yuan in an 800,000-ton ethylene project, which is expected to enhance product value and market competitiveness [2] Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 167.62 billion yuan, 173.42 billion yuan, and 177.14 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12% in 2024 [1][2] - Net Profit Forecast: Expected net profits for the same years are 16.26 billion yuan, 20.46 billion yuan, and 23.12 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -19% in 2024 [1][2] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): The forecasted EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.62 yuan, 2.04 yuan, and 2.30 yuan respectively [1][2] - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: The current P/E ratios are projected to be 9.8X, 7.8X, and 6.9X for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1][2] Coal Business Performance - Domestic Coal Production: In Q3, the company reported a coal production volume of 9,622.1 thousand tons, with a unit cost of 375.9 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.0% in production volume [1] - Overseas Operations: The overseas segment showed significant improvement in both volume and price, with production from three open-pit coal mines in Australia increasing significantly [1][2] Chemical Business Performance - Methanol Production: In the first three quarters of 2024, methanol production was 3.041 million tons, with a unit price of 1,833.6 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight increase in profitability [2] - Investment in Chemical Projects: The company is investing in a new ethylene project to enhance its chemical production capabilities and improve profitability [2]