温氏股份：2024年三季报点评：养殖主业再创佳绩，分红、回购彰显经营信心

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [3]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance in its core breeding business, with significant increases in both revenue and net profit for the third quarter of 2024. The revenue reached 286.62 billion yuan, up 21.95% year-on-year, while net profit soared to 50.81 billion yuan, reflecting a staggering increase of 3097.03% [1]. - The company is actively improving its balance sheet, with the debt-to-asset ratio decreasing to 54.9% by the end of Q3 2024, down 5.5 percentage points year-on-year and 4.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company has initiated a share buyback program, with 3 billion yuan already repurchased by September 30, 2024, and plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 9.95 billion yuan [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 754.19 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 64.1 billion yuan, up 241.47% [1]. - The company’s pig and chicken output increased, with 21.56 million pigs and 871 million chickens sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.66% and 1.03%, respectively [1]. Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced its breeding costs, with the complete cost of pig breeding dropping to 13.8 yuan per kilogram. This cost reduction has significantly contributed to the profit margins, with average profits per pig reaching 798 yuan and 630 yuan in August and September, respectively [1]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the company will continue to perform well in Q4 2024 and throughout 2025, with an upward revision of the net profit forecast for 2024 to 106.15 billion yuan, an increase of 86.36% from previous estimates. However, the 2025 net profit forecast has been adjusted downward to 120.76 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.24% [3].