EASTMONEY(300059) 华创证券·2024-10-28 15:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Oriental Wealth (300059) with a target price of 29.15 RMB, compared to the current price of 22.70 RMB [1] Core Views - Oriental Wealth's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with a notable increase in market share despite a decline in revenue [1] - The company's self-operated business income grew significantly, contributing to a year-on-year increase in net profit despite a revenue decline [1] - The company's market share in transaction volume is likely increasing, as indicated by the rising ratio of commission income to daily market transaction volume [1] - Cost control measures have contributed positively to profitability, with reductions in management and sales expenses [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 total revenue was 2.36 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 380 million RMB and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 130 million RMB [1] - Q3 2024 net profit was 1.99 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2 million RMB and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 120 million RMB [1] - Self-operated business income in Q3 2024 was 770 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 310 million RMB, with a self-operated yield of 0.91% [1] - Fund sales revenue in Q3 2024 was 720 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 210 million RMB, primarily due to a decline in equity and hybrid fund holdings and lower management fees [1] - Commission income in Q3 2024 was 1.16 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 100 million RMB, but the ratio of commission income to daily market transaction volume increased to 0.22% from 0.16% in the same period last year [1] Cost Management - Management expenses in Q3 2024 were 560 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 50 million RMB and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 30 million RMB [1] - Sales expenses in Q3 2024 were 70 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 50 million RMB and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3 million RMB [1] - R&D expenses in Q3 2024 were 290 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8 million RMB and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20 million RMB [1] Future Outlook - The company's business income is highly correlated with market transaction volume, and high market activity is expected to drive future growth in brokerage business income [1] - The report maintains EPS forecasts for 2024/2025/2026 at 0.54/0.58/0.63 RMB, with BPS at 5.10/5.63/6.21 RMB [1] - The current PE ratios for 2024/2025/2026 are 42.4/39.1/36.1 times, with ROE at 11.1%/10.8%/10.6% [1] Market Performance - Oriental Wealth's stock price has shown significant volatility over the past 12 months, with a range of 24.90 RMB to 9.96 RMB [3] - The stock's performance has been compared to the CSI 300 index, showing a mixed trend over the past year [4]