CAPCHEM(300037) 东吴证券·2024-10-29 03:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - Q3 performance met expectations with total revenue of 5.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, and a net profit of 700 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0% [2] - The company expects a significant increase in shipments in Q4, particularly in the U.S. market, which is anticipated to enhance profitability [3] - The fluorochemical segment showed a sequential profit increase in Q3, with expected contributions from capacitors and semiconductor chemicals also showing steady growth [3] - The company has effectively controlled expenses, with a decrease in the expense ratio and a slight increase in inventory [4] - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 is set at 10.65 billion, 14.42 billion, and 20.12 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 29, 21, and 15 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3, the company reported revenue of 2.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.8%. The net profit for Q3 was 290 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.9% and a year-on-year increase of 13.9% [2] - The gross margin for Q3 was 25.7%, down 2.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit margin was 13.7%, up 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Shipment and Market Outlook - The company expects to ship approximately 135,000 tons of electrolyte in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of over 40%, with Q3 shipments reaching over 56,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of over 30% [3] - The company anticipates that shipments will stabilize in Q4, with total shipments for the year projected to be between 190,000 and 200,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of about 50% [3] Profitability and Expense Management - The fluorochemical segment is expected to contribute over 200 million yuan in profit for Q3, with a sequential increase of 7% [3] - The company reported a decrease in total expenses to 690 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, down 4.8% year-on-year, with a significant reduction in Q3 expenses [4] Valuation and Price Target - The target price for the company is set at 57 yuan, based on a projected P/E ratio of 30x for 2025, reflecting strong competitive advantages in the fluorochemical sector and a recovery in electrolyte pricing [4]