GDPD(600795) 国海证券·2024-10-29 04:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5][9] Core Views - The company's cash flow continues to improve, with a significant reduction in financial expenses. In Q3 2024, the operating net cash flow was 15.2 billion yuan, up 13.6% year-on-year and 4.3% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to a 15.4% increase in operating cash inflows [4][5] - The overall on-grid electricity price for Q3 2024 was 410.5 yuan/MWh, which is stable year-on-year, indicating a recovery in electricity pricing structure, particularly in high-price provinces like Zhejiang [4][5] - The company added 1.54 GW of new energy capacity in Q3 2024, with 1.53 GW from photovoltaic sources, contributing to a total of 3.3 GW of new installations in the first three quarters of 2024 [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 133.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.19 billion yuan, an increase of 63.4% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 48.03 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.47 billion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year [3][4] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 15.1%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [4] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast has been adjusted, with expected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 186.3 billion yuan, 199.2 billion yuan, and 211.0 billion yuan respectively. The net profits are projected to be 10.05 billion yuan, 9.13 billion yuan, and 10.0 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 9, 10, and 9 times [5][7][9] Market Performance - As of October 28, 2024, the company's stock price was 5.02 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 89.53 billion yuan. The stock has shown a performance of -1.8% over the past month, -11.5% over the past three months, and +37.6% over the past year [4][5]