YanKershop(002847) 华创证券·2024-10-29 05:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 62 yuan, compared to the current price of 52.40 yuan [1]. Core Insights - The company reported revenue of 3.861 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 493 million yuan, up 24.55% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 424 million yuan, reflecting a 12.9% increase [1]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved revenue of 1.402 billion yuan, a 26.2% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 174 million yuan, up 15.62% year-on-year [1]. - The growth was driven by high performance in bulk sales and Douyin channels, with significant contributions from major products like konjac and quail eggs, which saw monthly sales exceeding 100 million and 70 million yuan, respectively [1]. - The operating profit margin continued to expand, although the effective tax rate increased significantly, impacting net profit margins [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 4.115 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 42.2%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 5.207 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 26.5% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 506 million yuan for 2023, increasing to 658 million yuan in 2024, representing a growth rate of 30.2% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is estimated to be 1.85 yuan for 2023, rising to 2.41 yuan in 2024, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 28 and 22, respectively [2]. - The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-asset ratio of 49.44% and a total market capitalization of approximately 142.96 billion yuan [3]. Growth Drivers - The company is expected to continue its high growth trajectory due to ongoing channel expansion and product category diversification. The report highlights the sustained momentum in bulk store expansions and the effective utilization of the Douyin platform for product promotion [1]. - The acquisition of companies in the snack food segment is anticipated to enhance the product matrix and leverage existing distribution channels, further supporting revenue growth [1]. - The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to act as a catalyst for inventory buildup, potentially boosting sales in the near term [1].