XfmGroup(603225) 开源证券·2024-10-29 08:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a Q3 performance under pressure due to inventory losses, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 11.31% for the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 49.197 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 15.91% to 746 million yuan [3] - The report anticipates a recovery in long filament profitability due to an improved supply structure, despite a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [3] Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 17.924 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.91% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.56%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 141 million yuan, down 65.41% year-on-year and 57.23% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The company’s long filament sales volume in Q3 2024 was 2.0699 million tons, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.39%. The average selling prices for POY, FDY, and DTY products decreased by 3.19%, 2.67%, and 1.31% respectively compared to Q2 [3] - The report projects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 1.143 billion yuan, 2.080 billion yuan, and 2.361 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.75 yuan, 1.36 yuan, and 1.55 yuan [3][5] Industry Outlook - The report indicates that the growth rate of new long filament production capacity will significantly slow down starting in 2024, with an expected net increase of only 900,000 tons in the industry [3] - The long filament industry is expected to see a significant improvement in supply structure, benefiting from steady growth in domestic demand and marginal improvements in terminal textile and apparel exports [3]