TongQingLou Catering (605108) 华福证券·2024-10-30 00:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected PE ratio of 43/18/13 for 2024-2026 [1][3] Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 1,865 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.81%, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 58.92% to 83 million yuan [1] - The decline in net profit is attributed to increased expenses from new store openings, higher capital expenditures, and a high base effect from last year's one-time gains [1] - The company's Fumao Hotel business is expanding rapidly, with 10 hotels expected to open by the end of 2024, which is anticipated to drive future profit growth [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 2,607 million yuan, with a growth rate of 9% compared to 2023 [2] - Net profit for 2024 is expected to be 124 million yuan, a decrease of 59% from 2023, but is forecasted to rebound to 301 million yuan in 2025 [2] - The company's gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 20.23%, down 4.70 percentage points year-on-year [1] Business Operations - Same-store sales for the company's catering business decreased by 13.42% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2024, mainly due to a high base effect from 2023 [1] - Newly opened stores contributed 357 million yuan in revenue during the same period, with further growth expected as these stores mature [1] - The company opened 7 large-scale stores in 2024, with a total construction area of 223,200 square meters, leading to initial losses of nearly 30 million yuan [1] Future Outlook - The company's Fumao Hotel business is expected to reach a mature operating stage by 2025, contributing to profit growth [1] - Revenue growth is projected to accelerate to 26% in 2025 and 24% in 2026, driven by the expansion of both catering and hotel businesses [2] - The company's net profit margin is expected to recover to 9.1% in 2025 and 10.3% in 2026, up from 4.8% in 2024 [5]