ZMJ(601717) 东方证券·2024-10-30 00:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for the company with a target price of 18.92 RMB [2][4] Core Views - 24Q3 revenue slightly declined by 1.5% YoY, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 14.1% YoY to 8.97 billion RMB [1] - Gross margin improved to 23.9%, up by 2.56 percentage points YoY, and net profit margin increased to 10.1%, up by 1.38 percentage points YoY [1] - Coal machinery segment saw a 25.69% YoY increase in net profit to 29.84 billion RMB, driven by optimized product mix and lower material costs [1] - Automotive components segment revenue grew by 1.84% YoY to 133.30 billion RMB, but net profit declined by 19.98% YoY to 0.75 billion RMB [1] - Yaxing Group (a subsidiary) achieved a 21.42% YoY revenue growth to 38.64 billion RMB, while SEG (another subsidiary) saw a 5.57% YoY revenue decline to 93.75 billion RMB due to reduced sales in the European market [1] Financial Forecasts - 2024-2026 net profit forecasts are 36.4 billion RMB, 39.4 billion RMB, and 44.2 billion RMB, respectively [2] - EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 are 2.04 RMB, 2.20 RMB, and 2.48 RMB, respectively [2] - Revenue growth is expected to be 1.7% in 2024, 5.7% in 2025, and 8.4% in 2026 [3] - Net profit growth is projected at 11.2% in 2024, 8.1% in 2025, and 12.4% in 2026 [3] - Gross margin is forecasted to be 23.6% in 2024, 23.1% in 2025, and 23.4% in 2026 [3] Valuation and Performance - The company is valued at 8.6x PE for 2025, with a target price of 18.92 RMB [2] - 52-week high/low prices are 17.11 RMB and 10.61 RMB, respectively [4] - Market capitalization is 23.73 billion RMB [4] - Absolute performance over the past 12 months is 9.51%, while relative performance against the CSI 300 is -0.66% [4] Segment Performance - Coal machinery segment contributed 145.27 billion RMB in revenue for 24Q1-3, with a 2.50% YoY growth [1] - Automotive components segment contributed 133.30 billion RMB in revenue for 24Q1-3, with a 1.84% YoY growth [1] Financial Ratios - ROE is expected to be 17.0% in 2024, 16.6% in 2025, and 16.9% in 2026 [3] - Net profit margin is forecasted to be 9.8% in 2024, 10.1% in 2025, and 10.4% in 2026 [3] - P/E ratio is 6.5x for 2024, 6.0x for 2025, and 5.4x for 2026 [3]