GDPD(600795) 长城证券·2024-10-30 01:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating [1]. Core Views - The company has shown a year-on-year decline in revenue of 2.79% for the first three quarters of 2024, attributed to a decrease in electricity prices and reduced income from the coal sector due to the transfer of Guodian Construction Investment [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 63.41% year-on-year, driven by increased investment income from the transfer of Guodian Construction Investment and higher investment income from joint ventures [3]. - The company added 1.54 GW of new renewable energy capacity in Q3, with a total installed capacity of 108.06 million kW by the end of September 2024, indicating significant growth potential in the renewable energy sector [3][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 133.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.79% year-on-year, and a net profit of 9.19 billion yuan, an increase of 63.41% year-on-year [1][2]. - The average on-grid electricity price for Q3 was 410.48 yuan/MWh, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.09% [2]. - The company expects operating revenue to reach 188.06 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9%, and net profit to be 9.78 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 74.4% [5][6]. Installed Capacity and Energy Mix - As of September 2024, the company's installed capacity consisted of 66.6% thermal power, 13.84% hydropower, 8.82% wind power, and 10.74% solar power [3]. - The company has a robust pipeline of renewable energy projects, with a total approved or filed capacity of 6.70 million kW, indicating ample growth opportunities in the renewable sector [3][5]. Future Projections - The company forecasts operating revenues of 192.38 billion yuan in 2025 and 198.28 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 9.10 billion yuan and 10.26 billion yuan, respectively [5][6]. - The expected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is projected to be 0.55 yuan, 0.51 yuan, and 0.57 yuan, respectively [1][5].