JHT(603199) 申万宏源·2024-10-30 01:21Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiuhua Tourism (603199) [4][6] Core Views - The company's third-quarter performance is under short-term pressure, but the opening of high-speed rail is expected to boost visitor traffic [4][5] - For the first three quarters of 2024, Jiuhua Tourism achieved operating revenue of 569 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 154 million yuan, up 1.18% year-on-year [4][6] - The third quarter saw a decline in operating revenue to 174 million yuan, down 4.15% year-on-year, and a net profit of 39.29 million yuan, down 2.85% year-on-year [4][6] Financial Summary - The company reported a gross profit margin of 46.3% in the third quarter, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The number of visitors to Jiuhua Mountain Scenic Area reached 7.988 million in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, with 2.512 million visitors in the third quarter, up 23.7% year-on-year [5] - The scenic area generated tourism revenue of 4.27 billion yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 44%, with an average spending per visitor of 1,699 yuan, up 16.3% [5] - The company has ongoing projects, including the Jiuhua Mountain Traffic Conversion Center, which can accommodate 5,207 vehicles and handle over 5,000 visitors per hour during peak times [5][6] Growth Drivers - The opening of the high-speed rail and the expansion of Jiuhua Mountain Airport are expected to enhance the network effect and increase visitor traffic [6] - The operation of Wenzong Ancient Village, which began in 2023, aims to improve leisure and vacation reception capabilities [6] - The company is also advancing the construction of the Lion Peak cable car project, which is expected to enhance visitor conversion rates [6] Profit Forecast - The report slightly lowers the profit forecast for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 184 million, 206 million, and 228 million yuan respectively [6][8] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 22, 20, and 18 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][8]