许樱之 国泰海通社服分析师: 对于一些热门城市或者周边的城市来讲的话。它是有非常强的一个拉动的效应的，这个是 就是未来的值得期待的一个春节的部分。第二点，其实我觉得是可以比较期待，就是整个 带薪年休假的一个修订。因为其实我们去看到，就是包括可能很多人他心里，大家也是有 感知，就是很多人他其实他的年假其实还是没休完的。包括我们去看到人社部，其实他在 之前的整体的一个公开资料当中也去披露了，就是根据 2024 年的一个数据显示，中国职 工法定的一个带薪年休假大概是在 10 天左右。 但是实际上，这些人他平均享受的年休假天数，仅仅是 6.29 天。所以这块来讲的话，其 实整体的一个执行的效果，我们是认为是有望去提升的。然后其实如果这些休假能够执行 到位的话，其实能够充分的去提升整体的一个错峰的一个输出行的这样的一些需求。包括 其实也有学者提出来，就是休假时间对于整个国内的一个旅游消费，它是存在比较强的一 个促进的效应的。比如说像带薪年假。国，黄金周的一个休假时间增加 10%国内的整体的 一个旅游消费，是有望增加 1.5~2%左右的，而且整体的带薪休假对旅游者的整体的一个 餐饮、购物、还有娱乐这块的影响效应是比较强的 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming "2026 Spring Festival Special Activity Plan" aimed at boosting consumption during the holiday season [3] - It emphasizes the positive outlook for travel-related sectors, including hotels, duty-free shops, and scenic spots, due to improved vacation policies and anti-monopoly measures in the OTA sector [4] - The report also notes the potential in the gold and jewelry market, recommending stocks with low valuations and improved competitive landscapes [4] - The impact of subsidies on the milk tea sector is acknowledged, with specific recommendations for brands benefiting from these subsidies [4] - AI applications and undervalued new consumer sectors are identified as areas of interest, with several companies recommended for investment [4] Summary by Sections Travel and Hospitality - The report recommends several hotel stocks, including Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, and JinJiang Hotels, as well as duty-free stocks like China Duty Free Group [4] - Scenic spots such as Emei Mountain A, Jiuhua Tourism, and Huangshan Tourism are highlighted as investment opportunities [4] Gold and Jewelry - Stocks like Caibai Co., Luk Fook Holdings, and Laopuhuangjin are recommended based on short-term data exceeding expectations and improved competitive dynamics [4] New Consumer Trends - Companies such as Kangnait Optical, Huatu Shanding, and Tianli International Holdings are suggested for their potential in AI applications and new consumer trends [4] Low Valuation and High Dividend Stocks - Recommendations include Jiangsu Guotai, Yum China, and Haidilao, focusing on low valuation and high dividend yield stocks [4] Market Performance - The report notes a decline of 0.91% in the retail sector and a rise of 0.70% in consumer services, ranking them 20th and 9th respectively among 30 industries [4] - Notable stock performances include Junting Hotel (+10.38%) and Haidilao (+8.64%) [4] Industry Updates - The report discusses the issuance of a special activity plan by multiple government departments to promote various consumption sectors [4] - It also mentions the acceptance of the first commercial real estate REITs by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [4] - Recent acquisitions, such as Meituan's purchase of Dingdong Maicai's China business for approximately $717 million, are highlighted [4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming "2026 Spring Festival Special Activity Plan" aimed at boosting consumption during the holiday season [3] - It emphasizes optimism towards tourism-related sectors, including hotels, duty-free shops, and scenic spots, due to improved vacation policies and ongoing anti-monopoly measures in the OTA sector [4] - The report also suggests a favorable outlook for the gold and jewelry sector, recommending stocks with low valuations and improved competitive landscapes [4] - The impact of subsidies on the milk tea industry is noted, with specific recommendations for brands benefiting from these initiatives [4] - AI applications and undervalued new consumer sectors are highlighted, with several companies recommended for investment [4] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report suggests continued optimism for tourism-related sectors, recommending specific companies such as Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, and China Duty Free Group [4] - It also recommends gold and jewelry companies like Caibai Co., Luk Fook Holdings, and Laopuhuangjin, focusing on those with short-term data exceeding expectations [4] - The milk tea sector is expected to benefit from subsidies, with recommendations for brands like Guming and Hushang Ayi [4] - AI and new consumer applications are highlighted, with recommendations for companies like Kangnait Optical and Huatu Shanding [4] - Low valuation and high dividend yield stocks are recommended, including Jiangsu Guotai and Haidilao [4] Market Review - The report notes a decline of 0.91% in the retail sector and a rise of 0.70% in consumer services, ranking them 20th and 9th respectively among 30 industries [4] - Notable stock performances include Junting Hotel (+10.38%) and Haidilao (+8.64%) [4] Industry Updates - The report mentions the issuance of a special activity plan by multiple government departments to promote various consumption sectors [4] - It also notes the acceptance of the first commercial real estate REITs by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, expanding the scope to retail, hotels, and office buildings [4] - Recent acquisitions, such as Meituan's purchase of Dingdong Maicai's China business for approximately $717 million, are highlighted [4] Company Announcements - Key announcements include the resignation of the general manager of HeBai Group and the signing of a land compensation agreement by a subsidiary of an agricultural products company [4]

[Table_Industry] 社会服务业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 股 票 研 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.07 政策推动、供求双旺，景区板块迎黄金投资期 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Report] 相关报告 社会服务业《政策支持服务消费发展，关注春节 数据》2026.02.01 社会服务业《金价持续上涨，春运出行高景气》 2026.01.25 社会服务业《新设口岸进境免税店，扩大免税市 场规模》2026.01.22 社会服务业《CPI 有所回升，CES 智能眼镜热度 延续》2026.01.11 社会服务业《消费政策利好，文旅行业迎来消费 回暖》2026.01.08 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 旅游行业深度报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 许樱之(分析师) | 0755-82900465 | xuyingzhi@ ...

证券之星消息，2月4日旅游及景区板块较上一交易日上涨0.71%，凯撒旅业领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4102.2，上涨0.85%。深证成指报收于14156.27，上涨0.21%。旅游及景区板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000796 | 凯撒旅业 | 6.47 | 3.69% | 106.63万 | | 6.83亿 | | 000610 | 西安旅游 | 10.53 | 3.54% | 49.51万 | | 5.06亿 | | 600054 | 黄山旅游 | 13.55 | 2.19% | 21.72万 | | 2.94亿 | | 600706 | 曲江文旅 | 10.82 | 2.08% | 7.31万 | | 7851.94万 | | 000888 | 峨眉山Ａ | 13.98 | 1.97% | 18.82万 | | 2.62亿 | | 002159 | 三特索道 | 16.36 | 1.93% | 4.53万 | | 7402.42万 ...

证券之星消息，2月3日旅游及景区板块较上一交易日上涨0.47%，陕西旅游领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4067.74，上涨1.29%。深证成指报收于14127.1，上涨2.19%。旅游及景区板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603199 九华旅游 | | -1606.61万 | 9.04% | 267.93万 | 1.51% | -1874.54万 | -10.54% | | 000558 天府文旅 | | 1180.32万 | 3.20% | -1005.53万 | -2.73% | -174.80万 | -0.47% | | 002627 | 三峡旅游 | 506.45万 | 2.23% | 626.38万 | 2.75% | -1132.83万 | -4.98% | | 603136 | 天目湖 | 478.32万 | 7.03% | 445.52万 | 6.55% | -923 ...

事件：超长假期叠加文旅补贴，春节出游预期乐观，重视出行标的配置 #超长假期来临：根据同程旅行春节旅游趋势报告，2026年春节为2月15日到2月23日，为期9天，是"史上最长春节 假期"，此外还可采取请5休15策略（2.15-3.1)，春节超长假期有望提振新春文旅市场活跃度。 史上最长春节假期，重视节前出行板块行情开启 事件：超长假期叠加文旅补贴，春节出游预期乐观，重视出行标的配置 #超长假期来临：根据同程旅行春节旅游趋势报告，2026年春节为2月15日到2月23日，为期9天，是"史上最长春节 假期"，此外还可采取请5休15策略（2.15-3.1)，春节超长假期有望提振新春文旅市场活跃度。 #消费补贴发挥杠杆效应：1月29日，文旅部宣布正式启动春节消费月，活动持续至 史上最长春节假期，重视节前出行板块行情开启 黄山旅游：公司控股股东旗下的东黄山索道建成在即，预计26年7月开通，有望将黄山最大承载量提升50%，带动 景区二消增长，索道后续大概率也注入上市公司体内解决同业竞争。 此外，公司北海酒店于25年9月重新开业，补足公司高端酒店供给。 天府文旅：卡位西南冰雪文旅体赛道，冬奥会催化在即。 公司旗下坐拥西岭雪山景 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The retail sector is expected to show varied performance in Q4 2025, with significant growth in certain segments like gold and jewelry, while others like supermarkets and department stores are projected to decline [1][2][4] - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming Spring Festival season, suggesting that sectors with performance elasticity, such as duty-free shops and certain tourist attractions, should be closely monitored [9] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications in enhancing e-commerce marketing, indicating a shift towards new retail strategies [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook - Gold and Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% in Q4 2025 - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% in Q4 2025 - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 1.2 to 2.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit growth of 150% to 254% in Q4 2025 - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion in Q4 2025, compared to a loss of 1.03 billion in the same period last year [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30% in Q4 2025, with adjusted net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarkets and Department Stores - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a decline of 22.4% year-on-year, with a projected drop of 92.5% in Q4 2025 - Wangfujing: Expected net profit loss of 0.45 to 0.23 billion, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% in Q4 2025 - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a net profit growth rate of -3.1% in Q4 2025 - Home Home Joy: Expected net profit of 198 to 228 million, with a growth rate of 50.1% to 72.8% in Q4 2025 [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% in Q4 2025 - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% in Q4 2025 - Su Mei Da: Expected net profit of 1.355 billion, with a growth rate of 70.8% in Q4 2025 [3] Social Services Sector Outlook - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% in Q4 2025 - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% in Q4 2025 - Jiuhua Tourism: Expected net profit growth of 0% to 15% in Q4 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, including duty-free, certain tourist attractions, and gold and jewelry [9] - For 2026, the report suggests looking at service consumption and product consumption, particularly in duty-free and travel chains, as well as undervalued segments with improving fundamentals [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the upcoming Spring Festival peak season, including duty-free, certain scenic spots, supermarkets, and gold jewelry [9] - It suggests that the recent fundamentals of duty-free and travel chains have improved, warranting ongoing observation and validation [9] - For 2026, the report recommends focusing on service consumption and product consumption, particularly in the duty-free and travel chain sectors, as well as the gold jewelry sector and Miniso, which have high valuation attractiveness [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Gold Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 436 million to 533 million, a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion, corresponding to a growth of 150% to 254% - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion, primarily due to asset impairment provisions [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30%, with adjusted operating profit and net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarket and Department Store Outlook for Q4 2025 - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% - Wangfujing: Expected net profit of -45 million to -23 million, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a growth rate of -3.1% - Jiajiayue: Expected net profit of 198 million to 228 million, growth of 50.1% to 72.8% - Hongqi Chain: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 0% [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce Outlook for Q4 2025 - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% - Saiwei Times: Expected net profit of 90 million to 130 million - Huakai Yibai: Expected net profit of 80 million to 110 million, driven by improved operational efficiency [3] Social Services Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% - Tianmu Lake: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Small Commodity City, China Duty-Free, Huazhu Group, Shoulu Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Chao Hong Ji, Jiuhua Tourism, Ruoyu Chen, Qingmu Technology, and Miniso, while also keeping an eye on other companies with potential [10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The civil aviation sector is expected to see record-high passenger transport volumes during the Spring Festival [2]. - The report highlights optimism for travel-related sectors, including hotels, duty-free shops, and scenic spots, due to the upcoming holiday and improved vacation policies [4]. - The report suggests selecting short-term outperformers in the gold sector as the recent surge in gold prices may be ending [4]. - AI applications and undervalued new consumption sectors are also recommended for investment [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The report notes a significant increase in domestic flight ticket bookings, with over 7.16 million tickets reserved as of January 29, 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 16% [4]. - International flight bookings also show slight growth, with over 1.72 million tickets reserved [4]. Retail Sector Insights - The report cites a Bain & Company report indicating a 3% to 5% contraction in China's personal luxury goods market in 2025, although this represents a significant improvement compared to the previous year's decline [4]. Company Announcements - Cai Bai Co. expects a net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion RMB for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.43% to 71.07% [4]. - Lai Shen Tong Ling anticipates a turnaround with a projected net profit of 58 million RMB for 2025, compared to a loss of 184 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - Yu Garden Co. expects a net loss of approximately 4.8 billion RMB for 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 125 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - Cuihua Jewelry forecasts a net profit of 21 million to 31 million RMB for 2025, a decrease of 85.69% to 90.31% compared to the previous year [4]. Key Stock Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks across various sectors, including: - Hotels: Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, JinJiang Hotels [4]. - Duty-free: China Duty Free Group [4]. - Scenic spots: Emei Mountain A, Jiuhua Tourism, Huangshan Tourism [4]. - Gold sector: Cai Bai Co., Luk Fook Holdings, Lao Pu Gold [4]. - AI and new consumption: Kangnait Optical, Huatu Shanding, Tianli International Holdings [4].